We’ve got moves in both EUR/JPY and USD/CHF, and with the end of the week approaching it’s time for a quick update and adjustment to my most recent FX ideas.
Trade Idea: EUR/JPY Reversal To Continue?
EUR/JPY managed to make its way up to the 132.00 handle once again this week and sellers were ready to take control once again. It’s likely due to jabs this week by European Central Bank members on the euro, basically saying how the euro’s strength may affect inflation growth down the road. I think the recent slate of weaker-than-expected data from Europe (e.g., Euro Zone’s employment change q/q: 0.3% as expected vs. 0.4% previous, industrial production m/m: -1.0% vs. 0.4% previous) also has traders thinking hard that it might be time to lighten up on some euros at the moment.
We’ve also got a fresh round of global risk aversion pushing the markets around as fears of a U.S. trade war with China brewing have traders leaving riskier assets for “safe havens” like the Greenback and the Japanese yen.
With these conditions driving the markets, I’m seeing a gain not too long after being triggered at 132.00, and I have to consider potentially adding to my position if the recent swing low around 129.35 is taken out with strong moment. If so, that’s my next move, as well as rolling down my stop to minimize my risk and maximize my stop. Stay tuned for those adjustments.
Trade Idea: Short-term Play on USD/CHF
For USD/CHF, I was playing for a pick up in volatility on the retail sales event, and the likelihood that we’d see bullish movement on the release. Well, U.S. retail sales came out as a disappointment relative to expectations, but the market hasn’t paid it much mind since USD/CHF did make some moves higher, possibly with help from moderate upticks in inflation data.
Unfortunately for my short-term long USD/CHF idea, I didn’t get the pullback I wanted to the .9375 handle, which means I missed the rally that the pair has made in the last session or so. With that and the main events I was playing for passed, I’ve decided to close my long orders at .9375…no trade.
I’m still bullish on the pair and for now I’ll wait and see how traders handle the next swing high, around .9515, will be tested.
If I do decided to put orders back in, I’ll post on my blog so stay tuned and remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Create your own ideas and don’t simply follow what I do.
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