Since entering a short EUR/USD back in July, the market has slow moved lower for a decent R:R. But with a potentially bearish round of U.S. employment data ahead, I’ve decided to reduce my risk.
Support Break on EUR/USD?
At the end of July, I put in three orders on EUR/USD starting at market (1.1070) and scaled up into a short position to play my bearish fundamental bias in favor of the Greenback over the euro / major price level support break. Unfortunately for me, I didn’t get all three orders triggered because fortunately, the pair has drifted lower through August to put me at a current return of around 0.22% in 0.66% risk taken.
Looking ahead, the next major potential catalyst for the pair is likely the upcoming U.S. employment update, and with the latest ISM PMI report for August showing contraction in the employment sector, the odds are in favor of the upcoming U.S. Non-farm payroll report showing weakness as well.
So, EUR/USD could pop further from the recent swing lows just under 1.1100 by the end of this week, which is why I decided to reduce my risk by rolling down my stop from 1.1410 to 1.1115, which is just below my average entry price of 1.1118 and slightly more than one weekly ATR from the swing lows.
My gain wasn’t enough to lock in some profits so I decide to keep what I had open in case I get a bullish USD surprise this week, whether it was from the jobs data or some geopolitical event not on the calendar.
Well that’s it for now as there is nothing to do but wait and see what the market gives me. What do you think of the latest adjustment? Good move or would it be better to main my stop at 1.1410? Or just take the small gain to the bank and close down the trade all together? Would love to hear your thoughts so please don’t hesitate to share in the comments section below!
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