With Q2 in the books, it’s time to do a quick review of my blog ideas. While I did have more losers than winners, I ended up profitable thanks to adapting to the changing stories with trade management.
Basic Forex Trading Stats
|DATE||TRADE IDEA||P/L in pips||P/L in %|
|May 1||EUR/CAD Bounce to Resistance?||+3||+0.01|
|May 14||Long-term Uptrend in USD/CAD||-16||-0.08|
|May 22||Consolidation Breakout on CHF/JPY?||+106||+0.53|
|June 4||Wedge Breakdown on NZD/USD||-14||-0.07|
|June 11||Triangle Breakdown in EUR/JPY?||-60||-0.16|
Total Number of Trades in Q2: 5
Average Gain R:R: 0.28
Average Loss R:R: -0.18
Largest Drawdown: -0.23%
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 40.0%
Average % risk per trade: 0.70%
Total Q2 Blog Profit / Loss in %: +0.23% on 3.50% total risk taken
In my Q1 performance review, I thought volatility would continue to trend lower and price action was choppy, and I would take profits a little bit quicker unless there was really big surprise that really shakes up the markets. Well, looking back at Q2, volatility did continue to creep lower for most major forex pairs, but trends did start to form with a few themes playing out.
Most notable was the continued weakness in Sterling as no-deal Brexit fears rose, and the rate cut expectations from the RBNZ and RBA that put pressure on the Kiwi and Aussie for most of the quarter. We also didn’t get a trade deal between the U.S. and China as expected, and when coupled with tensions in the Middle East rising and weakening global economic data, we saw a bid for safe havens like the Japanese yen.
Unfortunately, I didn’t catch any of those big themes, because once again, with the low volatility conditions, I was looking more to get in and out of trades quickly. Also, by the time I recognized the themes, the trends seemed to have already run up pretty good, so I was hesitant to jump on plays that had already seen big runs like short Sterling and long Japanese yen.
So, while I didn’t do so hot with my fundamental biases, my trade management was pretty decent and kept me profitable for quarter as I cut out of my losers pretty quickly and let my one real winner run a little bit before taking profit. This just goes to show that what you do after you take on risk is just as important, if not more so, than the work to find and develop the trade idea.
Going forward, I think volatility will continue to rise, but I’m not so sure what’s ahead for price action. There are a lot of catalysts for potential big, directional moves (e.g., Brexit developments, tensions between Iran and the West, U.S.-China trade developments), but until we get something solid, I think it’ll be choppy through the rest of the Summer.
So, I think I’ll continue to take profits a little bit quicker unless we do get a really big surprise that really shakes up the markets, but I’ll also work on some medium-to-longer term ideas in case some of the bigger trend themes continue to play out.
What do you think of my review and how did you do in Q2 2019? Please share your thoughts in the comment box below. Thanks for checking out my blog…good luck and good trading!
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