You could say it was a “so-so” week for the HLHB Trend-Catcher. It came out with again at the end of the week, but its win wasn’t spectacular. Here’s the list of trades that the system generated:
1. Invalid signal since RSI was above 50.0 before the crossover candle.
2. Invalid signal since RSI was below 50.0 before the crossover candle.
3. Long at 1.2507. Closed at 1.2556 due to new crossover. +49 pips.
4. Invalid signal since RSI was above 50.0.
5. Long at 1.2538. Closed at 1.2499 due to new crossover. -39 pips.
6. Short at 1.2499. Closed at 1.2516 due to new crossover. -17 pips.
7. Invalid long since RSI was below 50.0.
8. Invalid signal since RSI did not cross the 50.0 level from above.
9. Long at 1.2546. Closed at 1.2588. +42 pips.
Total Gain: +42 pips
Am I bummed out that my system hasn’t been raking in a lot of pips? To an extent, yes, but I have to understand that it is summer. During this time, the market tends to the range, which means fewer trend plays and big moves.
I should even be happy now that my system ISN’T losing. Most trend-following systems normally experience huge drawdowns in times like this.
In my last trade idea, I incorporated the 100 SMA in my discretionary system. Taking a look at the indicator on the daily timeframe of EUR/USD, we see that resistance on the moving average held!
Going into the weekend, I had a bullish bias on the pair because I was anticipating Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to confirm QE3. Reports say that the central bank head honcho did hint at further easing. However, EUR/USD didn’t rally because of renewed concerns about Spain.
To be honest, I don’t know if I should buy or sell the pair now. Nonetheless, I will still keep close tabs on it. I’ll gauge what the more dominant theme (i.e., the prospect of QE3 vs. the possibility of a Spanish default) will be and make my decision based on market sentiment.
So, there you go! I hope y’all got in on the action on the charts last week.
Wishing you the best that the market has to offer,
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