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Another day, another hunt for the Happy Hunter trading system. So, how did the most recent hunt go for the two variants?

Pretty good, actually. There was a sweet downtrend on March 6. And unlike what happened on March 5, both variants were able ride and profit from this trend.

By the way, I haven’t yet updated the rules to reflect the planned tweaks. I’ll likely have them up by tomorrow. But for today, I’ll just give y’all a quick preview of what to expect from the tweaks.

Anyhow, below are the usual topics that we’ll be covering in today’s update:

By the way, if you’re a first-time reader and have no idea what this is all about, then you may wanna click on the links below to read about and understand the rules of the system.

Also, if you’re wondering what the numbers on the charts are about, they refer to the trade #, based on the chronological order when the signal was generated, not necessarily when the trade was opened or closed.

Oh, also note that you can find the details of each trade in the tables below the chart. If the table is too small to read, just remember that you can click on it to enlarge it.

And if you want to know more about the details of the previous trades, you can do that by clicking on the link below.

Also, this is the second month of the forward testing phase. If you want to know how both variants fared in February, then you can do that by clicking on the link below.

The Fixed TP Variant’s Trade Details

GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Trade Details (Click to enlarge)

Note: Trades # 18 and 19 were triggered on March 7 and were therefore not included in today’s update, but they’ll show up in tomorrow’s update.

The Trailing Variant’s Trade Details

GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart
GBP/NZD: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Trade Details (Click to enlarge)

Note: Trades # 18 and 19 were triggered on March 7 and were therefore not included in today’s update, but they’ll show up in tomorrow’s update.

The Month So Far

Equity Curve Comparison (Mar. 1-6)
Equity Curve Comparison (Mar. 1-6)

GBP/NZD produced another steady trend on March 6. And unlike what sadly happened on March 5, the system was able to ride the downtrend, which boosted the gains of both Variants.

The Fixed TP Variant is now only up 2.76% for the month (+1.12% previous) and even reached a high water mark of +3.32% (+2.12% previous).

As for the Trailing Variant, it’s up by 2.79% for the month (+0.72% previous) and also reached a high water mark of +3.79% (+1.72% previous).

Oh, do note that the Trailing Variant is now slightly outperforming the Fixed TP Variant, which is just natural given the steady downtrend. I just hope we continue seeing decent intraday trends like these. That way, the Trailing Variant will have a good chance of ending the month with more gains than the Fixed TP Variant.

A Not-So-Quick Preview Of The Tweaks

First, I just wanna say that I’m sorry to all of my dear readers. I know I told y’all (or wrote, to be more precise) that I’ll likely have the updated rules up by today.

Unfortunately, I had other tasks and personal matters to attend to and I was testing about a dozen ideas, which took a while to finish.

Again, sorry about that. I’ll have the updated rules up by tomorrow. And I’m still thinking about how to go about updating February’s forward tests and whether I’ll start implementing the new rules in tomorrow’s daily update or if it will be better to start next week since implementing the rules mid-week is kinda awkward.

At any rate, as mentioned in February’s Evaluation, I wanted to introduce some minor tweaks to the system to address the Trailing Variant’s weakness, namely it’s tendency to give back its gains and exit the trade at break-even, especially when trading conditions are unfavorable.

I hinted at two solutions to address this weakness. And I’ll be giving the details when I present the updated rules tomorrow.

But just to give y’all an idea, the first tweak is that if the conditions to move SL to breakeven are met, then instead of exiting at breakeven, we exit just above (for a long) or just below (for a short) our entry, we therefore no longer exit a trade empty-handed.

The second tweak, meanwhile, complements the first tweak but benefits only the Trailing Variant. Basically if the range of the SBar is greater than 2 x ATRH, we place the trail either at the low (for longs) or high (for shorts) of the SBar, instead of the low or high of Bar1.

The other minor tweak that will be introduced is a slight change for Entry Type 2. The gist of it is that the original HHHL and LHLL patterns no longer need to comply with the rules for Entry Type 1. Also, thanks to insight from reader mrie, I’ll be introducing a 24-hour time limit on the effectivity of Entry Type 2.

Anyhow, here’s the backtest stats based on the original rules.

And here’s how they turned out if the tweaks are implemented.

The minor tweaks didn’t really benefit the Fixed TP Variant all that much in terms of returns. But other metrics did see a performance increase, namely the win rate and expectancy score.

As for the Trailing Variant, well, it saw a more noticeable increase in returns, win rate, and the expectancy score.

There were some trade-offs, though, since the tweaks make both Variants a bit vulnerable to choppy price action.

And there were (and will be instances) when price will meet the conditions to move SL to breakeven, retrace very close to the entry price, then resume its move and hit TP.

Under the original rules, the system would have a much higher chance of hitting TP and the Trailing Variant would then ride the resulting trend (if any). Under the new rules, however, the trade would likely have exited with a very small gain.

GBP/NZD’s tendency to trend well means such events are relatively rare, though, so the trade-off is acceptable in my view.

Anyhow, that’s all I’ve got today. I’ll have the update rules up tomorrow. And as always, I enjoy your feedback, so if you have any questions, or if you found a possible error somewhere, or if you just want to say “hi”, then don’t be shy and write a comment down below!

Cheers!

Happy