Another day, another update for the Happy Hunter Trading System! So, how did the Happy Hunter’s hunt go today?
Well, the short of it is that the Fixed TP Variant rebounded and even reached a new high water mark. The Trailing Variant also recovered, but it still has some ways to go before it can fully recover its lost gains.
By the way, if you’re a first-time reader and have no idea what this is all about, then you may wanna click on the links below to read about and understand the rules of the system.
- The Happy Hunter Price Action System (Fixed TP Variant)
- The Happy Hunter Price Action System (Trailing Variant)
Also, if you’re wondering what the numbers on the charts below are, they refer to the trade #. The details of each trade are contained in the tables below the chart.
And if you missed ’em and want to know about the details of the previous trades, you can do that by clicking on the links below.
- Hunting Season Begins For The Happy Hunter Trading System (Feb. 1-9)
- The Daily Hunt With The Happy Hunter Trading System (Feb. 12-13)
Fixed TP Variant
Note: Trade #43 is still actually open as of 3:00 pm GMT+2. However, it has already met the conditions for SL to be moved to break even and for the trailing rules to kick in. But for comparison purposes, it’s assumed that the trade was closed at break even.
The “Bigger Picture”
Before anything else, let me just point out that I added the high water mark as a new metric. Simply put, it refers to the peak or maximum return generated by the system.
I don’t really have to do that since I also always present the equity curve, but it’s good to at least have the numbers for easy reference. Also, I wouldn’t have to compute every time I want to refer to the high point of the system. Tee hee!
With that out of the way, I mentioned in yesterday’s write-up that two consecutive days of unfavorable market conditions aren’t enough to make me worry.
And today (as of 3:00 pm GMT+2) is a vindication of that mindset, at least with regard to the Fixed TP Variant, since the Fixed TP Variant rebounded.
Not only that, the Fixed TP Variant also reached a new high water mark of +2.83% (+2.43% previous), which is great.
As for the Trailing Variant, it did recover a bit, with a return of +1.75% (+0.62% previous). However, it still has some ways to go before it makes its way back up to the high water mark of +3.42%.
Anyhow, the main reason why the Trailing Variant is now lagging the Fixed TP Variant is that intraday volatility is still below the 225-pip average (based on data from 2007-2017).
However, what’s really giving the Trailing Variant a problem is the relatively limited directional movement on GBP/NZD this week (so far).
The Trailing Variant was actually designed to survive prolonged periods of abnormally low volatility, provided that there are short-term trends that last for two-three days.
However, price action since February 12 has not only been relatively tight, but also choppy and rangey. Moreover, the individual candles are also abnormally large, relative to the ATRH, which makes it harder for the trailing rules to preserve profits, so the Trailing Variant just can’t get a break. Anyhow, let’s just hope that trading conditions will finally turn for the better.
As a side note, I mentioned in one of my earlier write-ups that there may be discrepancies in our data feed, and that it’s highly probable that I may have a valid signal based on my charts where none exist on yours (and vice versa)
Well, it’s possible that some of you would have missed trade #39. You see, trade #39’s SBar high was at 1.9106 while its Bar1 Low is at 1.9017 while the ATRH is 45 pips.
Since the difference between SBar high and Bar1 low is 89 pips, which is one pip less than twice the value of ATRH, then that means that the 12-hour time limit applies.
However, it’s possible that some of you would have a difference of more than 90 pips, which means that the 2-hour rule will apply instead of the 12-hour rule. And that, in turn, means that you would be canceling your sell stop order. Although in this case the trade ended up being break even. But it could have easily been a winner or loser, yielding us different results.
Anyhow, sorry for going on like that. Just felt that I had to point that out.
That’s all from me for now. And as always, I enjoy your feedback, so if you have any questions, or if you just want to say “hi”, then don’t be shy and write a comment down below!