As promised, I’m beginning the daily forward tests for the Happy Hunter Trading System starting today! So, how did the Happy Hunter’s hunt go?
By the way, if you’re a first-time reader and have no idea what this is all about, then you may wanna click on the links below to read about and understand the rules of the system.
- The Happy Hunter Price Action System (Fixed TP Variant)
- The Happy Hunter Price Action System (Trailing Variant)
And if you’re wondering why the trade begins with trade #27, then that’s probably because you missed yesterday’s write-up, so click on the link below if you need to catch up on that.
Fixed TP Variant
The “Bigger Picture”
GBP/NZD’s volatility was abnormally tight on February 12 since the range for the trading day, which started from 12 am GMT+2 until 11 pm GMT+2, was only 101 pips.
And for reference, GBP/NZD’s average daily range from 2007 to 2017 was around 225 pips. So, yes, trading conditions were really that tight.
February 13’s daily range (as of 12 pm GMT+2) was only slightly better but still abnormally tight at 131 pips.
And since the Happy Hunter relies on capturing strong intraday trends to make some moolah, it’s no surprise that the trading system fared rather poorly.
However, the Trailing Variant really took a hard hit since its 3.42% gain from February 1-9 is down to only 0.62%. Moreover, the Trailing Variant’s drawdown of 2.71% is now deeper compared to the Fixed TP Variant’s 2.51%, which goes to show just how much it suffered.
Speaking of the Fixed TP Variant, it didn’t suffer as much as the Trailing Variant, but it still suffered nonetheless since it’s now only up by 1.13% (+2.43% previous).
The Fixed TP Variant was designed to survive tight trading conditions, and this can be seen in the shallower slide in the Fixed TP Variant’s equity curve compared to the Trailing Variant.
Even so, the Fixed TP Variant still suffered since intraday trends were just not strong enough, especially on February 12.
Trades #27, #28, and #29, in particular, were all profitable at one point. However, there was just enough volatility to trigger the system’s rules for moving SL to RSL, but not enough to reach TP, or even move the SL to breakeven at least. So, yeah, it really was that bad.
Just look at how February 12’s price action compares to the past few days.
Anyhow, no worries. As I mentioned before, I’m assessing the system on a monthly basis, so two consecutive days of unfavorable market conditions aren’t enough to make me worry. Well, not yet anyway. And besides, it’s still a long way away from my 20% drawdown threshold.
Okay, that’s all from me for now. And as always, I enjoy your feedback, so if you have any questions, or if you just want to say “hi”, then don’t be shy and write a comment down below!