Forgive me if this set of trade updates is lookin’ like a Weekly Watch entry, but I’m just feeling giddy about seeing bearish traction on these plays.
And yep, it does look like I’m in a shorting mood lately! Here’s what’s going on with my open positions.
Short GBP/JPY Trade
First up is this Guppy swing trade (more like saga, TBH) that I’ve had open for more than a couple of months already. Looking at the chart below still hurts my one good eye because I could pinpoint several mistakes I’ve made, but I’m just glad I held on.
Later on, it became evident that pound bulls were trying to put up a stronger fight, keeping the pair inside a triangle consolidation pattern. Price even came close to pulling up to my wide stop past 150.00, but fortunately bears returned and pushed for a breakdown.
I’m keeping a bearish bias on this pair mostly because of risk-off vibes and Brexit fears that just won’t quit. The BOE recently acknowledged that a possible “no deal” scenario could prompt them to rethink rate hike plans.
With that, even though I know I could’ve jumped ship and reentered at better levels, I’m keeping this short position open. I’ll also be rolling my stop down to the area of interest at 147.50 to limit my risk and also give me space to add.
Short NZD/CHF Trade
Onto another trade where I may have hopped in a wee bit too early! I was aiming to catch a daily range breakdown on NZD/CHF, so I set a sell stop at .6725. Later on, I realized that I should’ve waited for the break-and-retest instead!
Thank goodness I set a wide enough stop to give enough leeway for pullbacks like these. I thought of cutting my losses when price was stuck in a short-term range for what seemed like ages, but now I’m patting myself on the back for keeping the trade open.I probably won’t be making any changes on this position for now while I’m waiting to see some more bearish traction. The higher-yielding Kiwi is already being bogged down by trade tensions and geopolitical risks while the franc is riding on safe-haven flows.
I do have to keep close tabs on the RBNZ decision later this week to see if they’re making any changes to their policy bias that might get Kiwi bulls’ hopes up.
Short EUR/AUD Trade
Last but certainly not least is this short EUR/AUD position where I unfortunately jumped in on a fake out. Price returned to its range for a bit longer before making its mind up to head south.
Hawkish RBA expectations stemming from better than expected data from Australia, coupled with safe-haven demand for gold, lifted the Aussie in the past few days. On the flip side, the euro still seems to be reeling from the post-ECB disappointment and persistent dollar strength.
Of course I will also be keeping close tabs on the RBA decision this week to see if I need to hop out of this position or keep it open for much longer. I’m hoping to be able to trail my stop lower for this one as well, but I’ll let the event risks pass first.
What do you guys think of my trades and adjustments? Any other fundamental or technical factors I might be missing? As always, I look forward to getting your feedback!
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