EUR/AUD tightened even further since my initial idea, actually giving me a better price to enter in. Here’s a quick adjustment to my trading plan.
Entry Adjustment: Triangle Breakout on EUR/AUD?
Fundamentally, not much has changed on my longer-term perspective on this pair, so if you want to know more about that, please read the original idea I posted last week here.
Shorter-term, the ECB just gave us another dovish outlook on the European economy, prompting a minor sell off today in the euro, and we recently got more positive updates on the Australian economy (positive Australian consumer confidence and a rebound in home loans), so I think the odds are pretty good sellers will continue to put pressure on the pair for now. And if the upcoming Chinese data surprises positive as other Chinese data have been recently, then that should be positive for the pair.
In terms of price action, the pair actually consolidated further since last week, hitting as high as 1.5840 before falling on today’s economic events. The market still hasn’t reached my original sell price of 1.5700, and with it currently trading around 1.5725, I think I can get in at a slightly better price here. And since I’m trading off of the 1-hour chart on this one, I’m using a 2x daily ATR to give my trade room to breathe. So, here’s my updated plan:
Short half position at market (1.5726), max stop at 1.5926, max target at 1.5326
I’m only risking 0.50% of my account on this trade and if it goes my way all the way to my target, I’ve got a potential starting return-on-risk of 2:1. I still want to get up to 1.00% max risk eventually, which I’ll likely add if the pair goes my way to hits a one ATR move from entry. What do you guys think? Let me know in the comments section below!
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