The U.S. dollar closed on Friday mixed against the major currencies, but arguably as a net winner for the week.
Early week positive risk sentiment sank the Greenback before a mid-week negative headlines had traders back to USD for safety.
It was a choppy mess from there with lots of Fed speak, weak U.S. data and coronavirus updates shaking traders up, but USD bulls were able to hold on for a net win.
Overlay of USD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
USD Weekly Performance from MarketMilk
United States Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
New York Fed says it will slow down pace of repo operations
Fed’s Bostic: Central bank ‘ready to act’ on coronavirus help if more is needed
Fed Official Says Lending Programs Will Support Economy, Avoid Deflation
Tuesday:
U.S. gov’t looking into $15.5B worth of first phase farm aid
NY Governor says ‘worst is over’ as coronavirus death toll slows
Oil price war spurs biggest drop in import prices in three years and slams U.S. energy industry
Fed’s Barkin: Businesses already planning ways to adapt to post-pandemic world
Fed’s Evans: ‘Many, many things must go right’ for U.S. economy to recover quickly from coronavirus
Global risk sentiment swung towards positive early in the week after OPEC+ agrees on a record oil production cut and better-than-expected Chinese data, likely contributing to the Greenback’s weakness on Monday and Tuesday.
Wednesday:
Risk sentiment shifted negative during the Asia session (likely weighed down by cheap oil & economic warnings), likely the support for USD’s rally before the U.S. data hits with more bad news to limit the Greenback’s gains.
Trump halts World Health Organization funding over handling of coronavirus outbreak
Richmond Fed’s Barkin: Unemployment rate could soar to high teens
U.S. Homebuilder confidence index takes biggest one-month dive in its history as coronavirus slams economy
U.S. retail sales collapse as coronavirus keeps consumers at home
U.S. manufacturing output posts biggest drop since 19460
Fed Beige Book says economy contracted ‘sharply and abruptly’ due to coronavirus
U.S. business inventories fall 0.4% in February
New York Fed Factory Index Collapses in April to Record Low
February net foreign acquisitions of long-term U.S.securities, short-term U.S. securities, & banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $13.4B
Thursday:
U.S. Weekly jobless claims hit 5.245 million, raising monthly loss to 22 million due to coronavirus
Privately-owned housing starts declined last month to an annualized rate of 1.2M, a 22% decline from the pace in Feb.
Philly Fed manufacturing index plunges in April to -56.6, worse than the Great Recession
Trump suggests U.S. states re-open economies in three phases in new guidelines – this was the catalyst that had traders moving back to Greenbacks and lifting risk sentiment more positive in general, which actually hurt the Greenback going into Friday as risk currencies made some gains with the help of coronavirus treatment hopes rising.
Friday:
The Greenback steps back further during the Asia session as positive risk sentiment got another boost from better-than-expected data from China (China March industrial output falls 1.1% year-on-year, better than forecast; first-quarter investment slides 16.1%)
New York Fed President Williams says the economy won’t be back to ‘full strength’ by end of 2020
Philadelphia Fed’s Harker: U.S. economy could contract by 5% in 2020
Bullard says Fed should keep some ‘firepower’ reserved in case crisis worsens
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. declined 6.7% in March to 104.2, following a 0.2% decrease in February
