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Throughout the week, the quiet U.S. economic calendar and the upcoming Jackson Hole Summit kept Dollar traders at bay as they awaited a highly anticipated response from the Federal Reserve to a recent spike higher in global recession indicators and fears. But the Greenback ended up being a slave to geopolitical risk at the end of the week as the U.S.-China trade war intensified, resulting in a mixed performance and a net loss against the majors into the weekend.
United States Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
- Trump ‘not ready’ for China trade deal, dismisses recession fears
- Trump says Fed should cut rates by at least 1% ‘with perhaps some quantitative easing’
Tuesday:
- White House considered payroll tax cut amid economic concerns, despite public bluster
- Trump Dismisses Recession Fears, Saying Fed Must Help The Economy
Wednesday:
- Fed’s Daly says she doesn’t see a U.S. recession on the horizon
- Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari says central bank should use forward guidance at next meeting
- U.S. home refinancing activity hits three-year high: MBA
- Fed Minutes to Show Extent of Committee Divisions on Last Month’s Rate Cut
Thursday:
- The Fed didn’t need to cut rates in July, Kansas City Fed president says
- U.S. jobless claims fall in sign of labor market strength
- IHS Markit Flash US PMI: Business activity growth weakens in August amid slowest rise in new orders for a decade
- Two top Fed officials say they don’t favor additional interest-rate cuts
- Dallas Fed’s Kaplan says he’d like to avoid cutting rates again in September, but has ‘open mind’
- Kansas City Fed Factory Gauge Contracts by Most Since 2016
Friday:
- China will retaliate with tariffs on $75 billion worth of US goods and resume auto duties – this development supported the Greenback as the markets shifted into risk aversion mode.
- Powell: U.S. in ‘favorable’ place, Fed will ‘act as appropriate – this highly anticipated speech from the Fed Chair turned out to be a dud and was quickly forgotten as the U.S.-China trade war quickly intensified thanks to the comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, ordering US companies to look for ‘alternative to China’. Not only did trader’s risk aversion behavior accelerate on the news, but we also saw a switch on U.S. dollar bias into sell mode. This resulted in the Greenback falling to the safe havens and a strong British pound, while maintaining gains against the comdolls into the weekend.
