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After an early week rally on rising geopolitical tensions, the U.S. dollar takes it to the chin this week after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and company signals a rate cut is likely at the next FOMC meeting.
United States Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
- U.S. consumer credit expands at solid pace in May for second straight month
- Strong close to the Monday session for the Greenback, likely on global risk aversion sentiment growing as Middle East tensions rise, this time between the U.K. and Iran after the U.K. captures an Iranian oil tanker.
Tuesday:
- According to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, small business optimism took a modest downturn to 103.3 in June
- Atlanta Fed’s Bostic: Officials debating merits, risks of ‘hotter’ economy
- Fed’s Harker sees ‘no immediate need’ for U.S. interest rate cut: Wall Street Journal
Wednesday:
- Fed’s Powell says trade, global growth concerns continue to weigh on U.S. economy
- Fed’s Bullard, citing low inflation and trade, calls for rate cut
- Many Fed officials saw near-term rate cut, not all convinced: minutes
- U.S. mortgage applications fall in latest week: MBA
- Fed’s Bullard expects a total of a half-point ‘insurance’ rate cut by year end, largely owed to trade jitters
Thursday:
- US core inflation posts biggest gain in nearly 1 1/2 years – this event stopped the Greenbacks bleeding and turned out to be the bottom for the week. Despite being a very positive number, the Fed will still likely cut at the end of July
- U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to three-month low
- Fed’s Powell affirms rate cut view; others see U.S. economy humming
Friday:
- China June trade surplus with U.S. rises 11% to $29.92 billion – USD weakness picked up momentum after this data was released, after showing a large decline of U.S. imports to China by 31.4% in June in retaliation to the U.S. imposed tariffs.
- Fed’s Evans: ‘A couple’ of rate cuts may help boost inflation
- US producer prices rose slightly in June, while the cost of goods declined