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We won’t see the retail sales report until the end of the week, so stimulus and election updates will likely dictate the dollar’s trends until then.

Planning on trading the dollar?

Here’s a list of potential catalysts that you should watch out for:

Closely watched economic releases

  • Annual inflation rate (Oct 13, 12:30 pm GMT) could speed up from 1.3% to 1.4% while the core inflation rate is expected to maintain its 1.7% annual rate
  • IBD/TIPP economic optimism (Oct 13, 2:00 pm GMT) to improve from 45.0 to 47.0
  • Producer prices (Oct 14, 12:30 pm GMT) seen growing by 0.3% after 0.2% downtick
  • Initial jobless claims (Oct 15, 12:30 pm GMT) to stay above the 800K for another week this week
  • NY manufacturing index (Oct 15, 12:30 pm GMT) seen dropping from 17.0 to 5.0 in October
  • Headline retail sales (Oct 16, 12:30 pm GMT) expected to slow down from 0.6% to 0.5%
  • Core retail sales (Oct 16, 12:30 pm GMT) could also dip from 0.7% to 0.4% in September

Overall dollar demand

  • So far, markets are pricing in economic recoveries regardless of who wins the Presidential elections. Stay glued to the tube in case any of Trump or Biden’s remarks tip the scale in favor of either candidate
  • Updates on the stimulus negotiations will continue to influence the demand for the safe-haven dollar
  • Vaccine developments will also spur risk-taking if we see convincing prospects that could come out within the year
  • Q3 2020 earnings reports will start to trickle in this week, which could set the tone for Uncle Sam’s non-V-shaped recovery curve
  • Brexit and EU Summit headlines can also affect the dollar’s safe-haven trades

Technical snapshot

  • The dollar has lost value against ALL of its major counterparts in the last seven days
  • It weakened the most against the Loonie, Aussie, and the franc
USD Forex Pairs Performance from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Performance from MarketMilk
  • Stochastic is signaling USD’s “oversold” status against AUD, GBP, CAD, EUR, and CHF
  • USD/JPY is “overbought” on the daily time frame
USD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • The dollar was most volatile against the comdolls and the pound in the last seven days
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for October 5 – 9!