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The dollar lost pips across the board despite positive trade developments last week. Can the bears extend the downtrend this week?

Let’s see what dollar bulls and bears can to work with:

Markit PMIs (Dec 16, 2:45 pm GMT)

  • Manufacturing PMI improved from 51.3 in October to hit a seven-month high of 52.2 in November
  • Services PMI inched up from 50.6 in October to a four-month high of 51.9 in November
  • The strong reports, along with a better-than-expected consumer sentiment release, boosted the dollar higher across the board
  • Analysts expect the manufacturing PMI at 52.8 in December
  • Services PMI could come in at 52.0 for the month

Final GDP reading (Dec 20, 1:30 pm GMT)

  • Q3 2019 GDP’s first reading came in at 1.9% after a 2.0% expansion in Q2
  • Q3 GDP was then revised from 1.9% to 2.1%
  • Traders expect the final reading to maintain the 2.1% second estimate

Core PCE price index (Dec 20, 3:00 pm GMT)

  • Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) is widely recognized as the Fed’s “preferred” measure of consumer prices
  • Core PCE grew by 0.1% in October as expected after a flat September reading
  • Market players see the report clocking in another 0.1% growth for the month

FOMC member speeches

  • Eric Rosengren (non-voting in 2020) will give a speech in New York (Dec 17, 5:30 pm GMT)
  • Lael Brainard (voting in 2020) will give a speech titled “Monetary Policy, Technology, and Globalisation” in Frankfurt (Dec 18, 10:15 am GMT)
  • Charles Evans (alternate voting member in 2020) has a speech in Indianapolis on Dec 18, 5:40 pm GMT
  • In its statement last week, FOMC hinted that members aren’t seeing rate hikes in 2020

Technical snapshot

  • USD gained only gained pips against JPY and lost pips against the rest of its major counterparts. It lost the most pips to NZD and GBP in the last 30 days

  • Stochastic is showing USD’s “oversold” conditions against CHF, CAD, NZD, and GBP on the daily time frame

  • RSI is only flagging USD’s “oversold” status against NZD and GBP

  • AUD/USD and EUR/USD are “bullish” in the short-term and “bearish but weakening” with the long-term SMAs

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for December 9 – 13!