Easing market concerns and weak U.S. economic data weighed on the dollar last week. Can this week’s catalysts turn the tides for the Greenback?
Here are the potential catalysts:
CPI reports (Sept 12, 1:30 pm GMT)
U.S. consumer prices gained by 0.3% in July, higher than the 0.1% increase seen in June and in line with markets had seen.
The core figure, which excludes volatile items such has food and energy, popped up by another 0.3% for the month. The annualized reading also posted a 1.8% gain, higher than the 1.6% increase in June and the 1.7% uptick that many had expected.
Not surprisingly, the better-than-expected numbers boosted the dollar higher against its counterparts.
This week, market geeks are seeing a 0.1% increase (vs. 0.3% previous) for the headline CPI; a 0.2% improvement in the core figure (vs. 0.3% previous), and a 1.8% gain (vs. 1.8% previous) for the annualized reading.
Last Friday Powell noted that the Fed’s outlook remains “favorable” as members still see “moderate growth, a strong labor market and inflation moving back up close to our 2% goal.” Meanwhile, a bunch of other voting FOMC members have hinted that they’re in no hurry to cut rates further despite pressure from the POTUS.
If this week’s inflation numbers significantly miss expectations, then we could see increased pressure on the Fed to cut its rates.
Retail sales (Sept 13, 1:30 pm GMT)Retail activity rose by 0.7% in July, which is faster than the 0.3% increase we saw in June. Heck it’s the fastest increase since March!
A closer look told us that Amazon’s Prime Day sales might have given it an extra boost. Still, the report marked the fifth consecutive month of increase as consumers take advantage of better job prospects and wage gains.
Will retail sales clock in a sixth consecutive increase this week? Analysts see an additional 0.2% gain for the report, while the core figure, which excludes items such as autos, is seen at 0.2% after printing a 1.0% growth in June.
Remember that strong consumer activity is one of the main reasons why some investors are still pretty chill about the prospects of a recession.
If this week’s reports show significant weakness, though, then we could investors price in their concerns and maybe head towards “safer” (read: lower-yielding) bets in the markets.
Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for September 2 – 6!