Looks like the dollar all over the place last week. Let’s see if this week’s list of events can inspire a more uniform action!
Powell’s testimonies and speeches
Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to testify before not one, but TWO committees in D.C. over the next couple of days.
Specifically, he will deliver the Fed’s semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow at 3:00 pm GMT and the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday at 3:00 pm GMT.
Based on what we’ve heard from the Fed’s latest monetary policy statement and meeting minutes, it looks like the members are more data-dependent (or “patient”) with their approach.
Not only have they reduced expectations of aggressive rate hikes in 2019, but they’ve also hinted that they’re ready to stop reducing their inflated balance sheets as early as the second half of the year.
Will Powell’s testimonies echo the central bank’s shift from its hawkish biases? More importantly, can similar headlines keep on dragging the dollar lower?
Advance GDP report (Feb 28, 1:30 pm GMT)
For newbies out there, know that The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) actually releases three GDP estimates: the advanced reading, the preliminary reading, and then the final reading.
The advance reading is the least accurate since it’s the earliest estimate, but it generally triggers the biggest reaction since it’s the first GDP release on the lineup.
This week analysts expect to see the U.S. economy grow by 2.6% in Q4 2018, slower than the 3.4% growth seen in Q3 2018.
We already know that economic sectors related to manufacturing, housing, and trade took hits in the last months of the year. Fortunately, positive results in the labor market and consumption could also offset some of the potential losses during the period.
Since this week’s release offers the first glimpse, it’s likely that a lot of traders will pay close attention to the numbers. If they line up with the Fed’s shift to a less hawkish bias, then we could see the dollar lose pips across the board.
Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for February 18 – 22!