After spending the previous session in the red, the euro made a bit of a bounce when the attention shifted to the Greek debt relief deal. Yes Greece, talk about #ThrowbackThursday!
Meanwhile, Iran’s standoff in the OPEC meeting weighed on crude oil and the positively-correlated Loonie while weak data and another fall in U.S. equities hurt the dollar.
- Canadian ADP non-farm employment change up by 2.9K vs. 15.1K previous
- Canada’s wholesale sales ticked 0.1% up vs. 0.4% consensus
- Philly Fed index slipped from 34.4 to 19.9 vs. 28.9 forecast
- U.S. house price index posted 0.1% uptick vs. 0.3% forecast
- U.S. CB leading index up by 0.2% vs. 0.4% estimate, 0.4% previous
- U.S. initial jobless claims down from 221K to 218K vs. 220K forecast
- Euro zone consumer confidence index dipped from 0 to -1
- New Zealand visitor arrivals rebounded by 2.7% from earlier 1.0% drop
- Greece gets debt relief deal for 15B EUR loan, 10-year EFSF extension, and grace period of 10 years on interest payments
- OPEC technical committee pushing for 1M bpd increase in production
- Iran Oil Minister Zanganeh: “I don’t think we can reach agreement”
Weak U.S. data
It’s another day in the red for Uncle Sam! Several factors are being blamed for the losses on Wall Street, including the ongoing trade spat with China, a Supreme Court ruling on internet tax collection, and mostly downbeat economic data.
In particular, the steeper than expected fall in the Philly Fed index spurred a more pronounced than usual reaction as the reading slipped from 34.4 to 19.9. This was weaker than the estimated drop to 28.9, reflecting a much slower pace of expansion in the industry.
Components of the report revealed that the decline was mostly due to lower new order volumes and weaker general activity. On a less downbeat note, manufacturers reported higher prices and a positive production outlook.
In the housing sector, the HPI printed a smaller than expected 0.1% uptick versus the estimated 0.3% gain. The CB leading index also fell short of estimates as it saw a 0.2% increase versus the 0.4% consensus. On the flip side, initial jobless claims ticked down from 221K to 218K versus the 220K forecast.
U.S. stocks slide deeper, bond yields down
The U.S. Supreme Court ruling on e-commerce sales tax collections sparked considerable losses for online retailers like Amazon and Ebay, dragging equity indices further into negative territory.
- Dow 30 index is down 196.10 points to 24,461.70 (-0.80%)
- S&P 500 index is down 17.56 points to 2,749.76 (-0.63%)
- Nasdaq is down 68.56 points to 7,712.95 (-0.88%)
Additional details on the Trump administration’s plans to hit China with tariffs on more goods also contributed to the gloomy mood, although officials say they plan on pursuing high-level talks for the next couple of weeks.
Note that the U.S. plans on slapping $34 billion worth tariffs on Chinese goods by July 6, plus $16 billion after a public review.
Debt relief for Greece
The Greek debt drama made a bit of a comeback recently, but the show might not last for long as euro zone finance ministers gave in to a deal that would provide some debt relief.
Creditors agreed to grant Greece a loan tranche of 15 billion EUR, a part of which would be used to repay the ECB and IMF, plus a 10-year extension for the repayment of its European Financial Stability Facility. To top it off, Greece also gets an additional grace period of 10 years on interest payments.
According to European Economic and Financial Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici, this marks a “historical moment for Greece,” adding:
“Tonight’s Eurogroup agreement achieves what we have been calling for, a credible, upfront set of measures, which will meaningfully lighten Greece’s debt burden, allow the country to stand on its own two feet, and reassure all partners and investors.
Major Market Mover(s):
The scrilla found itself on shaky footing once more, as a handful of factors such as the ruling on e-commerce tax collections and weak economic data dragged U.S. assets lower.
USD/JPY sank from 110.54 to a low of 109.85, USD/CHF fell from .9974 to .9897, GBP/USD continued to climb to 1.3259, AUD/USD bounced to .7394, and NZD/USD is up to .6881.
The euro got back on its feet after dealing with political troubles and a downbeat showing in European markets earlier on, as the Greek debt relief sparked a bit of confidence.
EUR/USD bounced off the 1.1500 area to a high of 1.1634, EUR/JPY pulled up to 127.89, EUR/GBP found support at .8330 to reach .8771, and EUR/AUD advanced to 1.5720.
The Loonie also found itself on the losers’ bench as Iran’s refusal to commit to a combined 1 million barrels per day increase in production kept crude oil traders on edge.
CAD/JPY resumed the drop to a low of 82.47, EUR/CAD ticked up from 1.5347 to 1.5473, GBP/CAD climbed to a high of 1.7637, and AUD/CAD is up to .9832.
Watch Out For:
- 11:30 pm GMT: Japanese national core CPI y/y (another 0.7% gain expected)
- 12:30 am GMT: Japanese flash manufacturing PMI (dip from 52.8 to 52.6 expected)
- 3:00 am GMT: New Zealand credit card spending (previous 7.0% gain)
- 4:30 am GMT: Japan’s all industries activity index (0.9% increase expected)