Disappointing New Zealand business sentiment and risk-off vibes took the Kiwi dollar down for the week, and it was never able to fully recover against all of the majors after the big shift to positive risk sentiment hit the markets on Brexit news.
New Zealand Headlines and Economic data
- New Zealand Services PMI ticks lower to 54.4 in September from 54.6 in August – this combined with a little bit of risk-off global sentiment to start off the week was likely what had traders sour on the Kiwi to start the week. The risk aversion vibes was likely on a combination of weak economic data from China (imports and exports fell more than expected in September) and doubts began to rise on the recent ‘phase 1’ trade agreement between the U.S. and China after China says it wants more talks before signing trade deal with Trump
- New Zealand lost 13,577 NZ citizens in year to August, almost double the previous year’s loss. But the net gain from migration still almost reached 54,000
- The migration data may have been a driver for the Kiwi’s continued move lower on the session, but sentiment reversed later during the U.S. trading session, possibly on the improved global dairy prices (+0.5% vs. +0.2% previous), but more likely on the big shift in global risk sentiment to positive after news of a Brexit deal between the U.K. and EU was close to being drafted.
- New Zealand quarterly CPI: +0.7% in Sept; 1.5% y/y – the inflation data sparked a nice pop in the Kiwi against the majors, but fell later on the session after New Zealand central bank says lower rates may be needed; annual inflation slows
- New catalysts from New Zealand on the the session, so it’s likely the Kiwi’s rally stemmed from more positive risk vibes after a better-than-expected update on Australia’s employment situation. We also got positive rhetoric on the U.S.-China trade negotiation front after China says it hopes to reach phased trade pact with U.S. as soon as possible.