The Kiwi comes out a big loser despite a mostly quiet week for New Zealand headlines and data. This is mainly due to a surprise story that the RBNZ may look into “unconventional policy,” but also likely on rising geopolitical concerns and Aussie weakness.
New Zealand Headlines and Economic data
- RBNZ to Refresh Unconventional Policy Strategy as Rates Drop – this was likely the main event for the New Zealand dollar this week. It was an unexpected turn for the RBNZ, who has avoided going beyond changing interest rates in past. Despite it being in the very, very early stages of development, it is a pretty big deal and likely the main reason for the Kiwi’s steady decline all the way into the weekend.
- Global risk-off sentiment sparked by a combination or rising geopolitical concerns (Boris Johnson wins U.K. PM; no-deal Brexit odds rise) and weak global economic updates (Eurozone PMI shows manufacturing downturn deepens) was arguably the other reason why we saw Kiwi weakness during the U.S. trading session, despite positive news from the U.S.-China trade story that in-person talks could be held next week.
- New Zealand June trade surplus of $365M (higher than expected); quarterly tade balance was a deficit of $773M
- RBA Chief Says He’s Ready to Ease Again, Sees Rates Staying Low – an immediate bearish reaction in Aussie pairs off of Lowe’s speech, and it is likely the reason why the Kiwi drifted lower on the session, moving with the Aussie as their economic are closely tied together
- Geopolitical concerns rose and drove traders out of high-yielders on the session like the New Zealand dollar, this time possibly on reports of Iran test-firing a medium-range ballistic missile, adding fuel to the already tense situation between the U.S. and Iran