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Kiwi bears got some pips in last week after a bit of risk aversion and profit-taking.

Can the comdoll recover its losses this week?

I’ve got a list of potential catalysts that might move the New Zealand dollar in the next few days:

Quarterly CPI (Jan 21, 9:45 pm GMT)

  • Consumer prices rose by 0.7% from Q2 to Q3 2020 against market estimates of a 0.9% uptick
  • Annual prices dipped from 1.5% to 1.4%, the lowest since Q1 2018, as the pandemic extends its impact on consumer activity
  • Optimism over a stimulus deal in the U.S., uncertainty over the second Presidential debate, and NZ’s CPI miss helped drag NZD about 15 pips lower during the Asian session
  • Analysts see quarterly inflation cooling further to 0.5% in Q4 2020
  • Annual prices could slow down from 1.4% to 1.1%

Business surveys

  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) pays close attention to business sentiment so you should too
  • NZIER’s business confidence (Jan 19, 9:00 pm GMT) could improve from -40 to -30 in Q4 2020
  • BusinessNZ’s manufacturing index (Jan 21, 9:30 pm GMT) seen weakening from 55.3 to 53.7

Market risk sentiment

  • China’s data dump today and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC)’s loan prime rate update on Wednesday can cause some ripples among NZD’s major pairs
  • PMI releases from major economies like the U.S., Eurozone, U.K., Japan, and Australia will paint a picture of the pace of manufacturing activity recovery
  • Civil disturbance around Biden’s inauguration can influence the appetite for high-yielding bets like the Kiwi
  • Rising coronavirus cases, lockdown prospects, and vaccine updates will continue to influence overall risk-taking in the markets

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic considers the Kiwi “overbought” against the euro
  • NZD may be “oversold” against AUD, GBP, and CAD on the daily time frame
  • The comdoll is (mostly) in neutral territory against the safe-havens
NZD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
NZD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • Daily EMAs reflect the short-term bearish pressure across the board
  • NZD remains mostly bullish against EUR
  • Kiwi is on short and long-term bearish trends against the Aussie
NZD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
NZD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
  • Kiwi was most volatile against the safe-havens and the pound in the last seven days
NZD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
NZD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for Jan. 11 – 15!