New Zealand’s GDP is up this week!
Will the numbers give Kiwi bulls something to cheer about?
Here are the top catalysts to watch if you’re trading the comdoll this week:
GDP (Dec 16, 9:45 pm GMT)
- The economy officially entered a recession and printed its deepest contraction on record (-12.2%) in Q2 2020
- NZD dropped to its intraday lows and near its intraweek lows before London and U.S. session catalysts boosted the comdoll
- Analysts see a 15.1% growth jump in Q3 2020
- Annual growth could have improved from -12.4% to -6.0%
- The report will be printed less than two hours after the FOMC’s statement and less than three hours before Australia’s jobs numbers. Keep an eye out for profit-taking and countercurrency volatility!
Trade balance (Dec 17, 9:45 pm GMT)
- New Zealand printed a 28-year high annualized trade surplus in October as pandemic restrictions limited imports
- NZD didn’t react much to the news as there weren’t any major catalysts moving the markets at the time
- The trade deficit could clock in at 620M NZD in November
ANZ business confidence (Dec 18, 12:00 am GMT)
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) looks at business surveys like this so you should too!
- The report printed at -6.9 in November
- Markets see the survey clocking improving to 7.4 in December
Market risk sentiment
- The Kiwi’s overbought conditions will make it an easy target for the bears in case of risk aversion or strong countercurrency demand
- Decisions by the Fed, SNB, BOE, and the BOJ can cause volatility spikes among major NZD pairs
- Vaccine developments, stimulus updates, and Brexit-related uncertainty will continue to factor in the demand for high-yielding bets like the comdolls
- RSI is flagging NZD/USD’s “overbought” status on the daily time frame
- NZD/AUD and NZD/CAD are trading near neutral levels
- EMAs reflect Kiwi’s short and long-term bullish trends against most of its major counterparts
- Kiwi is seeing short-term bearish pressure against the Aussie
- Volatility hunters may want to look into trading the Kiwi against the pound and the safe-havens