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The RBNZ is up this week!
What is the forex market expecting and which catalysts can move the Kiwi in the next couple of days?
Here’s a shortlist of market events you need to watch out for:
RBNZ’s statement (June 24, 2:00 am GMT)
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its interest rates unchanged in May
- RBNZ doubled its asset purchases program from 33B NZD to 60B NZD and kept negative interest rates as an option
- NZD dropped sharply during the trading session
- Improved economic prospects since the last meeting are making analysts believe that RBNZ will keep its policies unchanged in June though it may retain its cautious forecasts
Trade balance (June 24, 10:45 pm GMT)
- The trade surplus widened from 361M NZD to 1,267M NZD in April – the largest surplus on record – as imports fell at its sharpest rate since October 2009
- NZD popped higher across the board on the headline numbers AND the risk-friendly environment at the time
- Market players expect the surplus to widen further to 1,279M NZD in May
Market risk sentiment
- Traders will look to fresh coronavirus cases and government responses to gauge the likelihood of economies re-imposing lockdown measures
- Vaccine updates can also affect risk appetite for high-yielding currencies like the Kiwi
- Watch out for U.S.-China trade updates as tensions heat up ahead of the U.S. elections
Technical snapshot
- Williams %R considers the Kiwi “overbought” against the pound
- NZD may be “oversold” against USD and JPY on the daily time frame
- NZD is still on bullish trends against EUR, CAD, and GBP
- Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities against the safe havens
- NZD was most volatile against JPY, USD, GBP, and EUR in the last seven days
Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for June 15 – 19!
