Kiwi stayed on a downtrend last week despite a spike from a trade-related headline. Can the bulls make up for the losses this week?
Here are potential catalysts you should watch out for:
Quarterly retail sales (Aug 22, 11:45 pm GMT)
Retail trading increased by 0.7% from Q4 2018 to Q1 2019, which was slower than the 1.7% jump seen in Q4 but was faster than the 0.6% increase that analysts had expected.
The core figure, which removes volatile items such as automobiles and gas stations, also showed 0.7% growth when market players saw a 0.9% gain after the previous quarter’s 2.0% growth.
Unfortunately for Kiwi bulls, traders had used the weak core sales growth as reason to continue the comdoll’s intraweek downtrend that started with rate cut hints from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
This week, analysts see headline retail sales slow down to 0.1% while the core figure could drop to 0.2%.
Remember that weaker inflation is one of the reasons why the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised markets with a 50-basis-point rate cut earlier this month. Weaker-than-expected retail numbers would confirm the central bank’s concerns and keep the rate cut hopes alive.
Jackson Hole updates
Later this week we’ll see major central bankers and finance officials bond over existing and global trends.
One of the more anticipated events is a speech by Fed Governor Powell himself, which is expected to hint at the Fed’s policy schedule in the foreseeable future.
How worried are central bankers over the global trade tensions? How about the global growth slowdown or yield curve inversion?
Stay glued to the tube in case we hear about concerns that would move your favorite currencies!