No top-tier data from New Zealand this week, which means that y’all gotta pay attention to countercurrency moves!
Here’s a short list of Kiwi’s potential movers:
Business NZ manufacturing index (Jul 11, 6:30 pm GMT)
In last month’s release we found out that the manufacturing sector had expanded at a slower pace, as production fell to its lowest value and new orders barely stayed in expansionary territory.
At the time, the slip in the overall index weighed on the Kiwi and helped fuel its weekly downtrend.
This week analysts expect a rebound from 50.2 to an index reading of 53.1 in June. Remember that New Zealand’s central bankers tend to consider to business-related surveys in their policy making. That means you should pay attention, too!
Oh, but take note that the release is scheduled about six hours after Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony, so market’s reaction could be wonky.
Countercurrency price action
With not a lot of market-moving data scheduled from New Zealand, it’s likely that Kiwi will take its cues from other major currencies.
This week all eyes will be on the Fed and how it will react to last Friday’s mixed NFP report. Will the improvement in headline numbers discourage an immediate “one and done” interest rate cut? Or will this week’s meeting minutes reveal its urgency to unleash more stimulus on the economy?
We know from last Friday’s reaction to the U.S. NFP release that the lack of urgency from the Fed could translate to overall dollar strength (and Kiwi weakness).
Meanwhile, the BOC is publishing its policy decision some time this week. Dovish notes could set a trend among commodity-related currencies like the Kiwi, so make sure you stay tuned for any directional reaction that might affect the comdolls!
Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for July 1 – 5!