Looks like New Zealand is in for a data-light trading week. So which events can move the Kiwi over the next few days?
ANZ commodity price index (Mar 5, 12:00 am GMT)
Higher dairy and meat prices boosted ANZ’s index to a 2.1% monthly growth rate in January, which ran counter to the sluggish pace that we saw in the second half of 2018.
With not a lot of other reports moving the Kiwi last month, the better-than-expected report was enough to boost the New Zealand dollar for the rest of the day.
Will the report exceed the 2.1% rate in February? Take note that other events, such as the RBA’s statement and China’s Caixin services PMI are scheduled for release during the same trading session as the report. That means that its impact might be cut short by other bigger catalysts!
Overall risk sentiment
New Zealand is pretty light on the data front this week, so the Kiwi will more likely take cues from global risk sentiment.
Over the next couple of days, watch out for updates on the U.S.-China trade negotiations. While the Donald has delayed the re-imposition of tariffs on Chinese products, the markets won’t be fully confident until an actual deal has been made between the world’s largest economies.
The clock is also ticking for Britain, which is scheduled to formally exit the EU by the end of this month. Unless Theresa May can guarantee that a no-deal situation is completely off the table, market players will be wary of a potential hard Brexit in the next couple of weeks.
Last but not the least is overall U.S. dollar demand. The Greenback rocketed against most of its counterparts on not-so-dovish testimonies from Powell and better-than-expected economic data. Question is, can the bulls maintain their momentum? Or will the bears step in this week?
Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for Feb. 25 – Mar. 1!