Only one major data release from New Zealand this week! Then again, as last week’s price action has taught us, it only takes one to set a trend.
Trade balance (Jan. 28, 10:45 pm GMT)
New Zealand’s trade deficit narrowed down from 1,222M NZD to 861M NZD in November after a 7.1% annualized jump in exports outpaced a 0.6% decline in imports.
Unfortunately, the bulls were trampled over the bears who priced in a worse-than-expected GDP printed at the same time as the trade balance report. The GDP, combined with an overall risk-averse trading environment, dragged the Kiwi lower for most of the day.
This week analysts expect to see a big improvement. Specifically, they’re seeing a 225M NZD surplus for the month of December.
Recall that the discovery of stink bugs had weighted on imports a bit in November. If imports bounce back, or if global economic slowdown has taken a bite out of New Zealand’s exports in December, then the report might miss its optimistic expectations and we might see fresh downside bias for the Kiwi.
Overall risk sentiment
As you can see in the latest price action recap, the Kiwi still very much takes cues from market risk sentiment.
Now that the U.S. has temporarily ended its government shutdown, we might see more demand trickle back into the dollar.
In addition to that, developments in issues such as Brexit and the Fed possibly ending its balance sheet reduction program might also cause a wiggle or two for the comdoll’s price action.
Make sure you don’t miss any relevant headlines coming your way in the next couple of days!
Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for Jan. 21-25!