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"The way to build superior long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs…When you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig."

                Stanley Druckenmiller

Commentary & Analysis
Long-term Dollar Uptrend Intact – Weekly Chart View of Major Pairs

The weekly charts below (shared with our forex service members yesterday) continue to support our view the US dollar is in a longer term bull trend against the pack…

The charts include wave count, 21- vs. 55-day exponential moving average, and MACD (moving average convergence divergence oscillator).

Key summary:

  • Interesting that EUR/USD & USD/CHF only now entering a 21 vs. 54-week moving average crossover, i.e. EUR/USD down and USD/CHF up.
  • AUD/USD appears oversold on the MACD; but clearly the trend is down
  • GBP/USD following the triangle wave pattern very nicely
  • USD/JPY looks to go much higher; looking oversold at the moment weekly.

US Dollar Index Weekly:

USD/JPY Weekly: Is B wave correction in place? We had a target of 93 and change on this correction weekly and we saw a low of 93.78…

EUR/USD Weekly: I think long-term players should be short this pair. Today we have a break below both the 21- and 54-week exponential moving average (EMA).

USD/CHF Weekly: Same here as EUR/USD; today is a break above the 21- and 54-week EMA.

GBP/USD Weekly: This pair has followed along this triangle pattern for a while now. If entering C down, it should be sharp.

USD/CAD Weekly: Similar dynamics as other commodity currencies, but not overbought (as Aussie is oversold).

AUD/USD Weekly: Clearly oversold on the MACD oscillator and the pair is bouncing higher; but fundamentally-driven moves disregard technical and can remain overbought or oversold for a long time.