Partner Center Find a Broker

Bulls and bears played tug-o-pips and caused wide ranges on a lot of yen crosses last week.

Can this week’s catalysts encourage one-directional moves?

Take a look at the potential market movers for the safe-haven this week:

Domestic data releases

  • Upside surprises will support the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s upbeat economic estimates last week
  • BOJ’s meeting minutes (Jan 25, 11:50 pm GMT) can hint at the policy changes that BOJ will announce in March
  • BOJ’s core CPI (Jan 26, 5:00 am GMT) last printed a 0.1% dip after no growth in October
  • Retail sales (Jan 27, 11:50 pm GMT) to jump by 0.5% after a 2.0% drop in November
  • Tokyo’s core CPI (Jan 28, 11:30 pm GMT) – a leading indicator for the country’s inflation – to print at -1.4% after a 1.3% decrease?
  • Unemployment rate (Jan 28, 11:30 pm GMT) seen rising from 2.9% to 3.0% in December
  • Preliminary industrial production (Jan 28, 11:50 pm GMT) seen worsening in December
  • Consumer confidence (Jan 29, 11:50 pm GMT) to take more hits in December?

Market risk appetite

  • Profit-taking from the previous weeks’ risk-taking can push the safe-haven yen higher across the board
  • Major yen crosses are hovering at key resistance levels, which could make it easier for the bears to sell at the first signs of risk aversion
  • Updates on U.S. fiscal stimulus bills and Uncle Sam’s GDP can influence overall risk-taking and yen demand

Technical snapshot

  • Oscillators aren’t showing a lot of actionable biases in general
  • JPY is “oversold” against GBP on the daily time frame
  • The yen is also headed for oversold levels against its fellow safe-havens
JPY Forex Pairs Williams %R from MarketMilk
JPY Forex Pairs Williams %R from MarketMilk
  • EMAs reflect the yen’s bearish trends against most of its major counterparts
  • USD/JPY is bearish against short-term EMAs but is on long-term bullish trends on the daily
JPY Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
JPY Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
  • JPY was most volatile against AUD, NZD, GBP, and CHF in the last seven days
JPY Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
JPY Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read JPY’s price recap for Jan. 18 – 22!