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Japan is printing a bunch of domestic reports this week!

Will yen traders even notice?

Here are the potential catalysts that might move the safe-haven this week!

Domestic data releases

  • Yen traders don’t look at Japan’s domestic releases much these days, but notable hits or misses could provide intraday opportunities to trade overall trends
  • Leading indicators (Dec 7, 5:00 am GMT) to edge higher from 92.5 to 93.2
  • Annual average cash earnings (Dec 7, 11:30 pm GMT) to improve from -0.9% to -0.6%
  • Household spending (Dec 7, 11:30 pm GMT) to print at 1.2% (from 3.8%) in October
  • Final GDP (Dec 7, 11:50 pm GMT) expected to confirm 5.0% reading in Q3
  • Economy Watchers Sentiment (Dec 8, 5:00 am GMT) seen at 54.0 (from 54.5)
  • Core machinery orders (Dec 8, 11:50 pm GMT) could gain by 2.5% after 4.4% dip in September
  • Preliminary machine tool orders (Dec 9, 6:00 am GMT) seen improving from -5.9% to -3.0%
  • BSI manufacturing index (Dec 9, 11:50 pm GMT) to jump from 0.1 to 5.0 in Q4
  • Annual PPI (Dec 9, 11:50 pm GMT) to print at -2.0% (from -2.1%)

Safe-haven flows

  • Continued dollar weakness could drag USD/JPY to 103.00
  • Updates on market themes like vaccine approvals, U.S. stimulus and elections, and Brexit negotiations will continue to affect the demand for safe-havens like the yen
  • Top-tier events like China’s trade numbers and BOC and ECB’s policy decisions can also cause volatility among the major yen crosses

Technical snapshot

  • Daily Keltner Channels are flagging the yen’s “oversold” conditions against the euro and the franc
JPY Forex Pairs Keltner Channel from MarketMilk
JPY Forex Pairs Keltner Channel from MarketMilk
  • EMAs show that the yen is on short AND long-term downtrends against almost all of its major counterparts
  • The dollar continues to lose out against the yen on the daily time frame
JPY Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
JPY Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
  • JPY was most volatile against GBP, CAD, NZD, and EUR in the last seven days
JPY Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
JPY Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read JPY’s price recap for Nov. 30 – Dec 4!