Risk aversion pushed the yen higher last week. Can the bulls keep their momentum given this week’s catalysts?
Here are major market themes you need to pay attention to:
Trade balance data
- Trade surplus came in at 4.95B JPY in March, much lower than the 420B JPY annual surplus many had expected
- Exports plummeted by 11.7% while imports dropped by 5.0% from a year ago in March
- Manufacturing PMI (Apr 23, 12:30 am GMT) could weaken further in April
- Services PMI (Apr 23, 12:30 am GMT) last printed at 33.8
- National core CPI (Apr 23, 11:30 pm GMT) to slow down from 0.6% to 0.4% from a year ago in March?
Overall risk appetite
- As a popular “safe haven,” JPY gets pips when markets don’t want to take risks
- The number of coronavirus cases, as well as policy responses from authorities can affect global market risk sentiment
- Volatility of the U.S. dollar or commodities can also influence the yen’s price action
- Stochastic is flagging JPY’s “oversold” status against AUD
- JPY may be “overbought” against EUR on the daily time frame
- The yen is still mostly bullish across the board though it could see retracements against AUD and NZD
- JPY saw the most volatility against NZD, AUD, CAD, and GBP in the last seven days
Missed last week’s price action? Read JPY’s price recap for April 13 – 17!