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It looks like the latest U.K. election polling data was the big driver for Sterling this week, with sentiment pointing to a comfortable lead by the Tories pushing the pound to the top spot against the major currencies.
United Kingdom Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
- General Election 2019 latest polls: Boris Johnson leads by 13 points two weeks out from election – this was likely the catalyst for Sterling’s strong start to the week. The idea is that if Boris Johnson wins, the odds of Brexit actually happening by January 31st significantly rise, ending the years of uncertainty that Brexit has caused. If the Labour party wins, that will likely lead to a further Brexit delay, and some are highly concerned with Labour’s business unfriendly proposals like a nationalization of companies and tax hikes.
- UK Retail sales cease their decline in November
Tuesday:
- Gross mortgage lending across the UK residential market in October 2019 was 0.9% lower y/y
- Conservatives’ poll lead over Labour narrows to 11 points – Kantar poll
Wednesday:
- Major YouGov poll points to comfortable 68-seat majority for Boris Johnson on 12 December – as mentioned above in the Monday recap, a win by the Conservative is generally Sterling positive, so it’s likely the latest poll numbers showing their comfortable lead was the catalyst for the pound’s rally on the session.
Thursday:
Friday:
- UK Consumer Confidence flatlines at -14 for November 2019
- UK Net mortgage borrowing picked up on the month to £4.3 billion, whilst mortgage approvals for house purchase fell slightly to 65,000
- The annual growth rate of UK consumer credit was 6.1% in October, up from 5.9% in September
- UK’s Johnson says will keep no-deal Brexit preparations in place
- UK Conservatives’ lead over Labour narrows to eight points: Panelbase poll
- UK PM Johnson says UK will leave EU by January 31 at the latest