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Unless we see strong countercurrency moves, pound traders will likely focus on Brexit updates and the U.K.’s GDP release.

Which catalysts can affect your pound trades?

I’ve got a shortlist for ya!

Labor market numbers (Nov 10, 7:00 am GMT)

  • The unemployment rate jumped from 4.1% to 4.5% but mostly due to the ONS’ methodology changes
  • A net of 153K workers had lost jobs, more than the 12K decrease we saw in July
  • GBP weakened during the session, but it was mostly due to EU’s Barnier hinting that there’s not enough progress yet to enter into tunnel talks with the U.K.
  • Analysts see the unemployment rate jumping to 4.9% in September
  • Jobless claimants could increase by 36K
  • A net of 140K are expected to have lost jobs for the month
  • Average earnings could improve from 0.0% to 0.9% as September classes start and the economy reopened a bit

Preliminary GDP (Nov 12, 7:00 am GMT)

  • The economy is expected to have grown by 15.5% in Q3 after dropping by 19.8% in Q2
  • Strong numbers could have minimal impact as they reflect pre-lockdown (part 2!) activities
  • Significantly weak activity could revive negative interest rate speculations and weigh on GBP

Brexit updates

  • EU and U.K. reps will resume Brexit deal talks in London this week
  • The more “high level” the talks appear, the more optimistic market players will be over a possible deal before the year ends
  • Watch out for compromises for a “level-playing field” in issues such as access to British fishing waters, workers’ rights, environmental protection, and state aid

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic is flagging GBP/USD’s “overbought” conditions
  • GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD have hit “oversold” status on the daily time frame
GBP Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
GBP Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • EMAs reflect GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD’s short and long-term bearish trends
  • Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities on GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, and EUR/GBP
GBP Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
GBP Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
GBP Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
GBP Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read GBP’s price recap for Nov. 2 – 6!