On this week’s docket are the PMI figures and BOE Inflation Report hearings, but pound traders would likely pay closer attention to the prorogation. What’s that about?
PMI readings (starting Sept. 2, 8:30 am)
We’ve got a fresh batch of industry PMI readings to welcome the brand-new month yo!
First up is the August manufacturing PMI up for release on Monday’s London trading session, and analysts aren’t expecting to see any changes from the 48.0 figure from July. If so, this would reflect another month of contraction in the industry.
Next, we’ve got the construction PMI due the following day, and this might show an improvement from 45.3 to 46.7 to signal a slower pace of contraction.
After that, the services PMI will be released the next day and could print a dip from 51.4 to 51.0 to show a slower pace of industry expansion. Now this tends to generate the strongest reaction among the PMI releases since the services sector accounts for a larger chunk of overall economic activity.
BOE Inflation Report hearings (Sept. 4, 1:15 pm GMT)
Wednesday hump day is also bound to be more exciting than usual for pound pairs as BOE officials are scheduled to testify in front of Parliament regarding their economic and monetary policy outlook.
The Inflation Report released last month revealed that policymakers are wary of slowing global growth and Brexit-related uncertainty. They went on to say that they expect inflationary pressures to pick up if a transition deal is struck, but now we know that this scenario might be a long shot.
The report also indicated:
“If there is a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, our interest rate decision would need to balance the upward pressure on prices from the likely fall in the pound and any reduction in businesses’ ability to supply goods and services, with the downward pressure from any cut in spending.”
With that, expect Guv’nah Carney and his fellow MPC members to be quizzed about details of the central bank’s game plan now that a “no deal” situation is looming. Reassuring remarks could still keep pound losses in check.
Last time we checked, U.K. PM Johnson called on The Queen herself to help prorogue (fancy word for suspend) Parliament to prevent lawmakers from blocking Brexit. Yep, now The Crown is involved!You see, No. 10 is set on taking the U.K. out of the EU by the October 31 by hook or by crook. In other words, with a transition deal or no deal. However, several MPs are understandably choking on their tea and scones when considering a “no deal” situation.
As it turns out, Boris Johnson wants to shut down Parliament temporarily before the Queen’s Speech on October 14, during which the government’s agenda would be unveiled. This should give him “ample time” to negotiate with the EU while warding off lawmakers’ attempts to block Brexit altogether.
But then this move puts Johnson’s leadership between a rock and hard place as it also ups the odds of a no-confidence vote or a general election. Yikes!
Better keep your eyes and ears peeled for any major updates concerning the prorogation, negotiations with the EU, and how it could all impact “no deal” Brexit chances.
Missed last week’s price action? Read the GBP price recap for August 26- 30!