Sterling was a net loser for the week as Brexit concerns remained in the backdrop. Can this change as the final stage of the U.K. PM race draws near?
U.K. jobs reports (July 16, 8:30 am GMT)
It’s worth noting that there’s also a handful of top-tier data due from the U.K. economy this week, the first of which is the latest employment report.
For the month of June, the claimant count or change in number of folks getting unemployment benefits is expected to be at 18.9K. This would be lower (read: better) compared to the earlier 23.2K increase in joblessness.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at the record low of 3.8%, which might also be a plus. Of particular interest to most pound traders is the average earnings index, which likely kept cruising at 3.1% for the three-month period ending in May.
U.K. inflation reports (July 17, 8:30 am GMT)
Market watchers are also likely to pay extra close attention to the latest batch of inflation reports as these could provide more clues on whether or not the BOE is inclined to hike rates soon if all goes well with Brexit.
The headline CPI for June is expected to have held steady at 2.0% while the core version of the report likely ticked up from 1.7% to 1.8%. What seems interesting is the projected slump in producer prices, with input costs slated to tumble by 1.0% and output costs likely to slow from 0.3% to 0.1%, as these would feed into overall consumer inflation down the line.
U.K. retail sales (July 18, 8:30 am GMT)
Last but certainly not least is the consumer spending report, which might print yet another decline to signal that Brits have been keeping their hands in their pockets these days.
Retail sales likely fell by 0.3% in June, which would be a smaller drop compared to the earlier 0.5% decline. Stronger than expected results, on the other hand, could point to resilience in the consumer sector.
U.K. PM Race
It’s down to the final week of the showdown between the U.K. Prime Minister contenders, but it seems that Johnson’s victory is all but a done deal.
With that, sterling traders might tune in closer to what his Brexit negotiation plans are and how these are likely to pan out. In other words, the focus could turn to whether or not the former London mayor can do a better job than May in terms of moving forward with a transition deal or at the very least uniting the Conservative Party.
Missed last week’s price action? Read GBP’s price recap for July 8-12!