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Risk aversion seemed to peek back in the markets on lingering geopolitical risks while crude oil and the Loonie dipped on OPEC commentary.

The dollar tossed and turned for the most part of the U.S. session, leaving the lower-yielding Swiss franc to enjoy most of the gains.

  • Canadian wholesale sales up 1.1% vs. 0.8% forecast in March
  • Canada’s February wholesale sales figure upgraded from -0.8% to -0.4%
  • Chinese CB leading index dipped from 1.6% to 1.5% in April
  • Richmond manufacturing index rose from -3 to +16 vs. consensus at +9
  • U.S. President Trump: “Substantial chance” that meeting with North Korea will not take place
  • Trump: Not pleased with current trade talks with China
  • Mnuchin: Steel and aluminum tariffs remain in place

Major Events/Reports:

More trade-related updates

The positive mood from cooling trade tensions between the U.S. and China turned sour once more when U.S. President Trump started talking smack again.

The Donald said that he is not pleased with how trade talks are going, clarifying that there is still no deal with Chinese company ZTE. Recall that Trump suggested a management shakeup to the firm in exchange for lifting penalties for shipping goods to Iran.

Trump also mentioned that there’s a “substantial chance” that the scheduled meeting between him and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un might not take place next month. Bummer.

U.S. equity indices closed in the red:

  • Dow 30 index is down 178.88 points to 24,834.41 (-0.72%)
  • S&P 500 index is down 8.57 points to 2,724.44 (-0.31%)
  • Nasdaq is down 15.58 points to 7,378.45 (-0.21%)

OPEC to bump up output?

Crude oil gave back some of its recent gains when the OPEC suggested they could adjust their output deal to account for the supply disruptions in Iran and Venezuela.

After their meeting this week, the oil cartel and other non-OPEC producers suggested they might step back from record high compliance levels in the previous months. Recall that compliance stood at 166% in April, indicating that member nations collectively cut way more than their target.

A source told Reuters that the producers are laying all options on the table, one of which might be to raise output for some of the cartel members by next month.

Better keep close tabs on the meeting between Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih and his counterparts from Russia later this week to glean more clues on what their next moves might be.

Major Market Mover(s):

CHF

With all the geopolitical risks weighing on the dollar and with the FOMC minutes set to shake things up this week, the Swiss franc was able to snatch safe-haven flows for itself.

USD/CHF tumbled from .9960 to a low of .9917, NZD/CHF fell from .6920 to .6874, EUR/CHF is down to 1.1695, GBP/CHF dropped to 1.3335, and AUD/CHF fell to .7516.

CAD

The Loonie had a rough one as the prospect of the Black Crack mafia adjusting its output levels to make up for the dip in crude oil supply weighed on prices.

USD/CAD recovered from 1.2755 to 1.2822, CAD/JPY retreated from 87.07 to 86.38, EUR/CAD ticked slightly higher to 1.5110, AUD/CAD is up to .9711, and NZD/CAD rose to the .8900 mark.

 

Watch Out For:

  • 12:30 am GMT: Australia MI leading index (-0.2% previous)
  • 12:30 am GMT: Japanese flash manufacturing PMI (dip from 53.8 to 53.6 eyed)
  • 1:30 am GMT: Australian construction work done q/q (1.1% rebound from earlier 19.4% drop expected)
  • 4:30 am GMT: Japanese all industries activity index (0.1% expected, 0.4% previous)