The euro and the pound battled for supremacy during today’s morning London session. And in the end, the euro managed to edge out the pound to emerge as the one currency to rule them all.
The yen and the Swissy were in a contest as well, since the two-safe haven currencies were in a race to the bottom of the forex heap, likely because of the risk-on vibes.
Both the yen and the Swissy were roughly flat against each other and the Greenback, though. In fact, both the yen and the Swissy barely won out against the Greenback.
- Swiss industrial production y/y: 8.6% vs. 2.9% previous
- German IFO business climate: 117.5 vs. 116.6 expected, 116.8 previous
- German IFO current conditions: 124.4 vs. 125.0 expected, 124.8 previous
There were a few Brexit-related headline floating around during the morning London session.
And the most noteworthy among these was European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s statement that:
“I will meet the British prime minister on 4 December. Then we will see if there has been sufficient progress.”
And when he was asked if he thinks sufficient progress has been made, Juncker replied with a “yes“.
But as usual, the blatantly anti-Brexit Juncker took the opportunity to spew his anti-Brexit sentiment by saying that “Brexit is a tragedy.” Juncker did concede, however, that “making progress” is better compared to being in a state of “chaos“.
Another noteworthy Brexit-related news was British PM Theresa May’s conciliatory rhetoric when she said that:
“What I‘m clear about is that we must step forward together … This is for both the UK and for the European Union to move on to the next stage.”
Theresa May is expected to meet and talk about Brexit plans with European Council President Tusk later at 3:30 pm GMT.
Commodities higher but precious metals down
Commodities were broadly higher during today’s morning London session. However, not all commodities got a bullish boost since precious metals were bogged down, likely because of lower safe-haven demand due to the risk-on vibes. Although some market analysts also pointed to profit-taking due to elevated prices, at least with regard to gold.
Anyhow, the commodities rally was attributed by market analysts mainly to the weaker Greenback. And for reference the U.S. dollar index was down by 0.08% to 92.97 for the day when the morning London session ended.
Other than that, market analysts are also still pointing to the supply disruption because of problems with the Keystone pipeline as the reason for the rise in oil prices, particularly the strong surge printed by the U.S. WTI oil benchmark.
Base metals were broadly in positive territory.
- Copper was up by 0.99% to $3.168 per pound
- Nickel was up by 0.86% to $12,020.00 per dry metric ton
Oil benchmarks were also in the green, but U.S. WTI clearly outperformed.
- U.S. WTI crude oil was up by 1.45% to $58.86 per barrel
- Brent crude oil was up by 0.36% to $63.78 per barrel
As mentioned earlier, precious metals did not join the equities rally, likely because of the risk-on vibes.
- Gold was down by 0.35% to $1,287.67 per troy ounce
- Silver was down by 0.41% to $17.041 per troy ounce
Risk-friendly day in Europe
Risk-taking was apparently the name of the game in Europe today since the major European equity indices were raking in gains aplenty and are currently on course to closing out the week in positive territory.
And according to market analysts, the risk-on vibes was brought about by growing hopes that a coalition government in Germany may be formed soon, as well as the improving fundamentals in the Euro Zone.
The strong performance of consumer goods companies was also cited as a reason for the risk-friendly vibes. And this was due to earlier news that China will reduce import tariffs on certain consumer goods, as well as expectations that European retailers will benefit from the so-called “Black Friday” sales frenzy.
- The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up by 0.33% to 1,526.75
- Germany’s DAX was up by 0.88% to 13,121.50
- The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 0.85% to 3,599.50
The risk-on vibes also propped up U.S. equity futures, hinting that appetite for risk will likely carry over into the upcoming U.S. session.
- S&P 500 futures were up by 0.24% to 2,600.75
- Nasdaq futures were up by 0.12% to 6,397.38
Global bond yields rise
Global bond yields climbed higher during the morning London session, which is another sign that risk appetite was the dominant sentiment in Europe.
- German 10-year bond yield up by 4.61% to 0.363%
- French 10-year bond yield up by 3.45% to 0.698%
- U.K. 10-year bond yield up by 1.20% to 1.265%
- U.S. 10-year bond yield up by 1.01% to 2.344%
- Canadian 10-year bond yield up by 0.86% to 1.909%
Major Market Mover(s):
The euro extended its gains from the earlier session and even edged out a victory against the pound, which made the euro the top currency, not just during the morning London session, but of the day (so far) as well.
Improving business sentiment in Germany likely gave the euro a boost. However the euro was already on the rise before that. In fact and as mentioned earlier, the euro was already a net winner since the earlier Asian session.
And according to market analysts, the euro’s steady rise today was due to stronger growth prospects in the Euro Zone, which was reinforced by the net positive data this week.
EUR/USD was up by 26 pips (+0.22%) to 1.1873, EUR/JPY was up by 23 pips (+0.18%) to 132.23, EUR/CHF was up by 18 pips (+0.15%) to 1.1650
The pound fought the good fight against the euro but was ultimately outclassed and had to settle with second place.
And the pound’s strength was attributed by market analysts mainly to easing Brexit-related worries, with Juncker’s comments about progress in Brexit talks as the most commonly-cited reason.
GBP/USD was up by 24 pips (+0.18%) to 1.3326, GBP/JPY was up by 21 pips (+0.14%) to 148.41, GBP/CHF was up by 15 pips (+0.12%) to 1.3075
CHF & JPY
Risk-taking was the name of the game during the morning London session, so the safe-havens Swissy and yen got a good beating, with the yen getting the brunt of it and ending up as the second worst-performing currency of the session, as well as the worst-performing currency of the day (so far).
NZD/JPY was up by 4 pips (+0.05%) to 76.61, AUD/JPY was up by 6 pips (+0.07%) to 84.86, CAD/JPY was up by 12 pips (+0.14%) to 87.62
AUD/CHF was up by 8 pips (+0.11%) to 0.7476, NZD/CHF was up by 7 pips (+0.10%) to 0.6749, CAD/CHF was up by 12 pips (+0.16%) to 0.7720
The Greenback was barely outclassed by the weak yen and Swissy, which means that the Greenback was the worst-performing currency of the morning London session. No clear reason why the Greenback faltered, however. Although some market analysts are still pointing to the FOMC minutes as the reason for the lack of demand for the Greenback.
USD/CAD was down by 23 pips (-0.19%) to 1.2708, USD/JPY was down by 5 pips (-0.05%) to 111.36, USD/CHF was down by 7 pips (-0.07%) to 0.9811
Watch Out For:
- 1:30 pm GMT: Canadian quarterly corporate profits (0.1% previous)
- 2:45 pm GMT: Markit’s flash U.S. manufacturing PMI (55.0 expected, 54.6 previous)
- 2:45 pm GMT: Markit’s flash U.S. services PMI (55.5 expected, 55.3 previous)
- 6:15 pm GMT: ECB’s Benoît Cœuré is scheduled to speak