The higher-yielding Aussie apparently took the brunt of the risk-off vibes and commodities rout since it was the weakest currency of the morning London session. The euro, meanwhile, was broadly higher, very likely because of reinforced expectations for a future ECB tightening move, thanks to net positive Euro Zone inflation data.
- French Flash GDP q/q: 0.5% as expected, same as previous
- KOF Swiss economic barometer: 106.8 vs. 105.9 expected, 105.8 previous
- French HICP m/m: -0.4% as expected vs. 0.0% previous
- French HICP y/y: 0.8% as expected, same as previous
- Euro Zone business and consumer survey: 111.2 vs. 110.8 expected, 111.1 previous
- Spanish HICP m/m: -1.2% vs. 0.1% expected
- Spanish HICP y/y: 1.7% vs. 1.5% expected, 1.6% previous
- German HICP m/m: 0.4% vs. 0.3% expected, 0.2% previous
- German HICP y/y: 1.5% vs. 1.4% expected, 1.5% previous
- U.S. GDP report coming up
Positive Euro Zone inflation data
A slew of economic reports for the Euro Zone was released earlier today. However, the most noteworthy among them were the HICP reports for three of the major Euro Zone economies since they point to another solid inflation reading for the Euro Zone as a whole.
To be more specific, France’s HICP came in at 0.8% year-on-year in July, which is the same as the previous reading and is within expectations.
Spain, meanwhile, did rather well since it reported a 1.7% year-on-year increase. This is better than the expected dip from +1.6% to +1.5%.
As for Germany, its HICP came in at 1.5% year-on-year, which is the same pace as last time and beats expectations that inflation growth would ease from +1.5% to +1.4%.
Commodities retreat but oil resists
After rallying for the past several days, commodities finally staged a broad-based retreat during today’s morning London session. Interestingly enough, however, oil refused to play along and tried to claw its way higher.
The risk-off vibes didn’t provde any support to precious metals.
- Gold was down by 0.08% to $1,258.98 per troy ounce
- Silver was down by 0.22% to $16.536 per troy ounce
Base metals were mixed but most got a good beating.
- Copper was down by 0.23% to $2.871 per pound
- Zinc was down by 0.96% to $2,771.50 per dry metric ton
Oil benchmarks resisted, interestingly enough.
- U.S. WTI crude oil was up by 0.10% to $49.09 per barrel
- Brent crude oil was up by 0.75% to $51.70 per barrel
There was no clear reason for the broad-based commodities retreat. Also we can’t point to Greenback strength since the U.S. dollar index was down by 0.28% to 93.51 for the day when the session ended. However, profit-taking by longs after several days of rallies is a possibility.
As to why oil was able to resist, market analysts attributed that to growing optimism that the oil market is finally rebalancing after U.S. oil inventories printed a draw this week.
Risk-off vibes to end the week
Signs of risk aversion finally made a comeback during today’s morning London session since most of the major European equity indices began erasing their earlier gains and most were already in the red when the session ended.
Market analysts blamed the risk-off vibes on end-of-month profit-taking, the poor performance of exporters due to the euro’s recent strength, and tech stocks getting dragged lower by Amazon.
- The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down by 0.95% to 1,486.77
- Germany’s DAX was down by 0.58% to 12,143.50
- The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was down by 0.68% to 3,464.50
Even U.S. equity futures were weighed down by the risk-off vibes.
- S&P 500 futures were down by 0.30% to 2,464.50
- Nasdaq futures were down by 0.73% to 5,866.12
Major Market Mover(s):
The higher-yielding Aussie was the worst-performing currency of the session, very likely because of the risk-off vibes and commodities rout.
AUD/USD was down by 24 pips (-0.30%) to 0.7955, AUD/CAD was down by 43 pips (-0.44%) to 0.9974, AUD/NZD was down by 13 pips (-0.12%) to 1.0650
The euro had a good run during the session and ended up as the one currency to rule them all (for this session at least). And euro bulls can probably thank the net positive inflation data for the three major Euro Zone economies since they signal at another solid inflation reading for the Euro Zone as a whole, which is good for expectations of a future ECB tightening move.
EUR/USD was up by 21 pips (+0.19%) to 1.1718, EUR/JPY was up by 52 pips (+0.40%) to 130.35, EUR/AUD was up by 72 pips (+0.49%) to 1.4730
While not as intense as the past couple of days, the Swissy still got swamped by sellers and ended up as the second worst-performing currency of the session.
USD/CHF was up by 27 pips (+0.28%) to 0.9710, EUR/CHF was up by 49 pips (+0.43%) to 1.1380, GBP/CHF was up by 35 pips (+0.28%) to 1.2707
Watch Out For:
- 12:30 pm GMT: Canada’s monthly GDP (0.2% expected, same as previous)
- 12:30 pm GMT: U.S. advanced Q2 GDP (2.5% expected, 1.4% previous); reading Forex Gump’s preview here
- 12:30 pm GMT: U.S. GDP price index (1.3% expected, 1.9% previous) and employment cost index (0.6% expected, 0.8% previous)
- 2:00 pm GMT: University of Michigan’s revised consumer sentiment index (93.2 expected vs. 93.1 previous)
- 5:20 pm GMT: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has a speech