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China, Japan, and South Korean markets might be out on holidays, but that didn’t stop the rest of market players from making assets move in the last couple of hours.

  • Chinese, Japanese, and South Korean markets out on holidays
  • OPEC: output increase is “highly unlikely” unless there are supply and demand surprises
  • China cancels trade talks with U.S. reps

Major Events/Reports:

OPEC in no hurry to boost output

In a Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) in Algiers on Sunday, Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al Falih basically said “supply secured” and talked down the notion of increasing OPEC and non-OPEC production to reduce prices.

If you’re just tuning in, you should know that Donald Trump put pressure on OPEC last Thursday when he tweeted that “The OPEC monopoly must get prices down now!”

But in a presser, Al Falih said that “I do not influence prices.” Instead, he emphasized the group’s focus on supply and demand.

He shared that “The markets are adequately supplied,” adding that “[g]iven the numbers we saw today, that (an output increase in 2019) is highly unlikely unless we have surprises on the supply and demand.

China cancels trade talks

Over the weekend the Wall Street Journal cited “people briefed on the matter” and revealed that Chinese officials have canceled their mid-level talks following the U.S.’ decision to slap tariffs on more Chinese goods.

Recall that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had issued an invitation two weeks ago asking for a fresh round of talks this month.

But just last week the Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on $200B worth of Chinese goods scheduled to take effect today. Not only that, but the dues will increase to 25% at the end of the year.

Word around the hood is that Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen was set to lead the talks before Vice Premier Liu makes a follow-up trip to Washington. WSJ’s sources say that both the September 27 and 28 trips have now been called off.

Meanwhile, a White House official confirmed that “there are no meetings on the books right now,” though the POTUS “wants us to continue to engage to try to achieve a positive way forward.”

Mixed commodity prices

Commodity prices were mixed, with gold taking a step back on a bit of dollar strength while OPEC members rebuffing talks of supply increases boosted crude oil benchmarks:

  • Gold is down by 0.26% to $1,196.60 per troy ounce
  • Brent crude oil is up by 1.51% to $79.86 per barrel
  • U.S. WTI is up by 1.29% to $71.60 per barrel

Major Market Mover(s):

AUD

News of China canceling its scheduled trade-related negotiations with U.S. dragged the Aussie lower against its major counterparts.

AUD/USD is down by 18 pips (-0.24%) to .7268; AUD/JPY is down by 17 pips (-0.21%) to 81.83; EUR/AUD is up by 37 pips (+0.23%) to 1.6153; GBP/AUD is up by 48 pips (+0.27%) to 1.7991, and AUD/CAD is down by 11 pips (-0.12%) to .9396.

GBP

There were no direct catalysts for the pound’s strength, though some traders could have taken profits after last Friday’s bloodbath.

GBP/JPY is up by 9 pips (+0.06%) to 147.24; GBP/CHF is up by 15 pips (+0.12%) to 1.2547; GBP/NZD is up by 29 pips (+0.15%) to 1.9601, and GBP/CAD is up by 18 pips (+0.11%) to 1.6905.

Watch Out For:

  • 8:00 am GMT: German IfO business climate (103.2 expected, 103.8 previous)
  • 8:30 am GMT: BOE’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) statement
  • 10:00 am GMT: U.K.’s CBI industrial order expectations (5 expected, 7 previous)