Markets shifted into risk-on mode Monday. President Trump said he was holding off on planned strikes against Iran and pointed to progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a claim Iran itself disputed. Oil sank on the news.
Equities pushed toward record territory once a blowout ISM manufacturing report crossed the wires in the New York morning, and confirmation of Friday’s coordinated U.S.-Japan yen intervention gave currency traders plenty to parse through the Asian session.
Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading session!
News Headlines & Data:
- New Zealand Building Permits for June 2026: -3.6% m/m (-2.3% m/m forecast; -4.0% m/m previous)
- Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for July 2026: 52.0 (51.7 forecast; 51.5 previous)
- Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for July 2026: 54.5 (54.7 forecast; 54.8 previous)
- Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge for July 2026: 1.0% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; -0.4% m/m previous)
- China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI for July 2026: 50.9 (51.5 forecast; 51.7 previous)
- Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads for July 2026: 2.0% m/m (-0.1% m/m forecast; -0.2% m/m previous)
- Germany Retail Sales for June 2026: -0.2% y/y (-0.7% y/y forecast; 1.8% y/y previous); -1.1% m/m (-0.4% m/m forecast; 1.1% m/m previous)
- Swiss CPI Growth Rate for July 2026: 0.4% y/y (0.5% y/y forecast; 0.5% y/y previous); -0.1% m/m (0.0% m/m forecast; 0.0% m/m previous)
- Swiss procure.ch Manufacturing PMI for July 2026: 53.2 (55.0 forecast; 54.3 previous)
- Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for July 2026: 52.2 (52.2 forecast; 50.3 previous)
- Euro area S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for July 2026: 51.9 (52.0 forecast; 51.4 previous)
- U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for July 2026: 51.9 (52.8 forecast; 52.5 previous)
- U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for July 2026: 53.9 (53.8 forecast; 53.9 previous)
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ISM U.S. Manufacturing PMI for July 2026: 55.6 (53.7 forecast; 53.3 previous)
- ISM U.S. Manufacturing Prices for July 2026: 71.1 (71.0 forecast; 73.0 previous)
- ISM U.S. Manufacturing New Orders for July 2026: 56.7 (55.4 forecast; 56.0 previous)
- ISM U.S. Manufacturing Employment for July 2026: 52.8 (49.8 forecast; 49.7 previous)
- U.S. Construction Spending for June 2026: -0.1% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous)
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, Oil, S&P 500, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay – Chart Faster With TradingView
Geopolitics set the tone Monday. Signs of a possible Iran-U.S. de-escalation over the Strait of Hormuz sent crude gapping lower into the new week, and that same headline flow helped equities and other risk assets catch a bid, a move that gathered steam once the ISM report landed in the New York morning.
The S&P 500 drifted sideways to modestly higher through the Asian and London sessions before turning sharply higher once U.S. trading got underway, adding roughly a percent on the day. The index closed within striking distance of a record, with megacap stocks posting their best day since March after Amazon’s market value pushed above $3 trillion for the first time.
Crude oil absorbed the session’s sharpest move. WTI gapped lower at Sunday evening’s open, falling as much as 6% intraday after Trump told reporters he had called off a planned strike on Iranian infrastructure and suggested a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was close. Iran pushed back on that framing, and separate reports of a tanker coming under fire near the strait complicated the de-escalation story as the day wore on. Oil spent most of the remaining session rangebound before settling near $80 a barrel, down roughly 5% from Friday’s close.
Gold gave back a chunk of its recent gains, slipping a little more than half a percent. Most of the decline built during the New York morning, alongside the equity rally and a broader pullback in safe haven demand that followed the de-escalation headlines, before the metal stabilized and rebounded in the afternoon U.S. session.
Bitcoin followed a similar arc to equities. The cryptocurrency extended its slide through the Asian and early London sessions, dropping toward the $62,200 area, then staged a sharp recovery once the risk-on shift from the ISM report and the broader de-escalation mood took hold, finishing the day little changed. The round trip likely reflected the same swings in risk appetite that moved stocks and oil rather than any catalyst specific to crypto.
Treasury yields fell alongside the initial risk-off reaction to the weekend’s headlines, with the 10-year yield opening well below Friday’s settle near 4.73% and easing further through the Asian session. Yields recovered some ground as U.S. trading progressed and the ISM print reinforced the case for a patient Fed, stabilizing near 4.70% by the afternoon.
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FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors
Overlay of USD vs. Majors – Chart Faster With TradingView
The U.S. dollar traded mixed but mostly higher against the majors on Monday, closing as the day’s best-performing currency despite a rocky start against the yen.
During the Asian session, the yen dominated the early price action. Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japan’s Ministry of Finance jointly confirmed Friday’s coordinated yen-buying intervention and pledged not to hesitate on further joint action, extending the currency’s intervention-driven volatility into the new week. USD/JPY whipsawed sharply lower at the open before stabilizing and tracking the rest of the majors for the remainder of the session. The broader dollar traded with a net higher lean against most other majors, arguably reflecting some unwind of risk aversion as traders digested the weekend’s Iran headlines, while regional equities in Tokyo and Seoul sold off on the stronger yen and separate chip-valuation concerns. Switzerland’s July inflation data, released as London desks began filtering in, came in a touch softer than expected and appeared to have limited lasting impact on the franc.
The London session brought a run of manufacturing PMI updates from across Europe, and the trend skewed soft. Switzerland’s procure.ch gauge missed its forecast by a wide margin, the U.K.’s final PMI came in below its preliminary estimate, and the euro area’s own reading ticked slightly under expectations, while Germany’s figure matched consensus. That broadly cooler European data, set against building U.S. growth optimism, likely gave the dollar some support against the euro, pound, and franc through the session, even as price action stayed choppy and second-tier headlines dominated the newswires.
The U.S. session delivered the day’s most decisive data point. The ISM manufacturing index jumped to 55.6, its best reading since 2022 and well above forecasts, with the underlying employment component expanding for the first time in nearly three years. The dollar extended its gains against every major currency in the immediate aftermath, likely reflecting both the stronger growth signal and a modest repricing of the odds for a September rate hike. The Dollar Index pushed briefly above the 100.00 mark in the early afternoon before pulling back to settle just under that level.
By the close, the dollar had erased its early stumble against the yen and finished as the session’s strongest major currency, even as the yen itself settled little changed against the greenback once its own volatility faded.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Japan Monetary Base for July 31, 2026 at 11:50 pm GMT
- Australia Household Spending for June 2026 at 1:30 am GMT
- Australia Commodity Prices for July 2026 at 6:30 am GMT
- Canada Balance of Trade for June 2026 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Balance of Trade for June 2026 at 12:30 pm GMT
- New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index for August 4, 2026
- Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 at 1:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Factory Orders for June 2026 at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. JOLTs Job Openings & Quits for June 2026 at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. API Crude Oil Stock Change for July 31, 2026 at 8:30 pm GMT
Whether Monday’s risk-on mood carries into Tuesday probably hinges on confirmation, or the lack of it, from Iran on the reported Hormuz progress, since Tehran has so far disputed the U.S. characterization of the talks. Tuesday’s U.S. calendar is comparatively light, with JOLTs job openings and factory orders data likely to be read for confirmation that the labor market is cooling gradually rather than cracking, following Monday’s outsized ISM beat.
Stay frosty out there, forex friends!
Monday’s ISM manufacturing beat didn’t just move equities, it moved the dollar sharply higher in real time. What might not be obvious is exactly what happens inside the FX market the moment big data hits. Premium members can read our lesson:
📖 From Data to Price Action: What Happens When Big News Hits
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