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It was a net negative week for both the euro and the Swiss franc as price action seems to have been mostly driven by broad risk sentiment, counter currency flows, and an arguably net negative round of economic and business sentiment updates from Europe.

The Euro

Overlay of EUR Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of EUR Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
EUR Weekly Performance from MarketMilk
EUR Weekly Performance from MarketMilk

European Headlines and Economic data

Monday:

German Consumer price indext for August 2020: -0.1% m/m, 0.0% y/y

Spanish Flash CPI for August stands at -0.5%

Portugal’s exports slump 40% in second quarter, stoke record GDP fall

ECB policy calibrated to deal with pandemic resurgence, says Schnabel

Tuesday:

Spanish Manufacturing sector recovery stalls in August

Italian output rises sharply in August amid further revival of client demand

German Business conditions continue to recover across manufacturing sector during August

Modest growth of eurozone manufacturing sector sustained

Euro area annual inflation down to -0.2% – Euro weakness was likely sparked by this economic updates at this was the first time we’ve seen a negative inflation read since 2016. This puts pressure on the ECB to increase stimulative measures, i.e. likely increasing their bond purchasing program.

Euro area unemployment at 7.9%; EU at 7.2%

ECB’s De Guindos sees bank consolidation in euro zone starting soon

German Joblessness Falls Again Amid Revival of Economic Activity

Wednesday:

German Retail turnover in July 2020: -0.9% m/m in real terms

Spain’s unemployment rises amid new COVID outbreaks, tourist restrictions

Industrial producer prices up by 0.6% in euro area; Up by 0.4% in EU

Thursday:

Final Eurozone Services Business Activity Index: 50.5 in August vs. 54.7 in July

German Business activity growth slows in August; Index slips to 52.5 from 55.6 in July

French service sector growth index eases from 57.3 in July to 57.3 in August

Renewed decline in Italian service sector activity during August (Index down to 47.1 from 51.6 in July)

Spanish service sector returns to contraction

Rising euro stokes ECB worries over falling prices

Volume of retail trade down by 1.3% in euro area; Down by 0.8% in EU

Barnier’s comments are misleading on Britain’s trade talks position, says PM’s spokesman

Euro zone public deficit levels unsustainable, ECB’s Wunsch says

Friday:

Eurozone Construction PMI: downturn quickens in August

German Manufacturing in July 2020: new orders up 2.8% on the previous month

The Swiss Franc

Overlay of CHF Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of CHF Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
CHF Weekly Performance from MarketMilk
CHF Weekly Performance from MarketMilk

Swiss Headlines and Economic data

Monday:

Swiss retail trade turnover rose in July 2020 by 3.4%

Tuesday:

The procure.ch Manufacturing PMI in Switzerland increased to 51.8 in August of 2020 from 49.2 in July

Both the euro and the franc fell during the Tuesday session, possibly falling on the broad positive risk sentiment environment (continued strength from the U.S. tech sector), but also on euro weakness after a disappointing inflation number (likely sparking speculation of more stimulus ahead).

Thursday:

Swiss consumer prices remained stable m/m in August; -0.9% y/y

The euro and franc’s shift into rally mode was likely driven by the shift in global risk sentiment turned negative. This was likely triggered by the net negative sentiment and economic updates from around the globe (e.g.,  Eurozone Services Business Activity Index: 50.5 in August vs. 54.7 in July, 115,762 U.S. Job Cuts in August, recovery in China’s services sector loses a step)

Friday:

The euro and franc turned lower during the U.S trading session as broad risk sentiment flipped positive after the London session close, possibly on the better-than-expected U.S. employment update or arguably on signs of an imminent deal to avoid a U.S. government shutdown.