Both the euro and Swiss franc were net gainers as traders mainly focused on the rising negative global risk sentiment, and possibly on the themes from Europe of central bank stimulus and an economic re-opening very soon.
Global risk sentiment drivers for both currencies are covered in the Swiss franc recap below.
The Euro
European Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
German Production in April 2020: -17.9% seasonally adjusted on the previous month
Sentix investor confidence index rebounds to -24.8 in June vs. -41.8 in May
German cabinet speeds up stimulus package
Tuesday:
Europe’s spending surge must be temporary, ECB’s Rehn says
German Exports in April 2020: -31.1% on April 2019
GDP down by 3.6% and employment down by 0.2% in the euro area
Lagarde Says ECB Is Ready to Help Solve German Court Problem
Wednesday:
In April 2020, French manufacturing output slumped sharply again (−21.9%)
ECB prepares ‘bad bank’ plan for wave of coronavirus toxic debt
Germany to ease restrictions on seasonal workers for harvest time
Thursday:
Europe Prepares to Restart Travel With Rest of World in July
French payroll employment dropped by 2.0 % in the first quarter
Italian industrial production index decreased by 19.1% m/m in April
ECB will do anything to avoid credit crunch – Lane to paper
Friday:
No Fresh Lockdown Could Negate Need for More German Stimulus: Feld
In May 2020, French consumer prices rose by 0.1% over one month and by 0.4% year on year
Italian Industrial production down by 17.1% in euro area and 17.3% in EU
The Swiss Franc
Swiss Headlines and Economic data
There were no major news headlines or data from Switzerland, making it highly likely that the franc’s outperformance this week was mainly due to global risk sentiment and counter currency weakness.
The franc fell only to the Japanese yen, a behavioral pattern that often occurs during a risk-off environment.
Tuesday:
We saw franc strength in the early London session, possibly off of weaker-than-expected European trade data (e.g., German Exports in April 2020: -31.1% on April 2019) or geopolitical tensions (North Korea cuts communications with South Korea, Pompeo demands Iran release US detainees, urges Libya ceasefire)? But during the U.S. session, the franc turned lower against the high-yielders, possibly on rising risk-on sentiment after the WHO’s makes a U-turn on asymptomatic transmission.
Wednesday:
A strong broad move higher for the franc on the session, accelerating during the U.S trading session as further risk-off sentiment was sparked by a dovish Fed outlook on the economy.
Thursday:
Swiss franc strength continued into the Thursday session off of the FOMC event. Negative global risk sentiment accelerated during the US session, likely on fears of a second wave (Florida Reports Highest Daily Increase in Coronavirus Cases Since Outbreak Began) are added on top of the Fed’s dismal outlook to worry about. The franc rallied further against the higher-yielding currencies while taking a step back against the Dollar and the yen.
Friday:
Positive global risk sentiment recovers during the Asia and London trading sessions (possibly profit-taking?) to send the franc lower against the risk currencies and a bit higher against the Japanese yen.
But sentiment swung back to negative later prompting a reversal of the session’s mixed performance earlier.
The risk reversal was likely on fears of a second wave and a re-implementation of lockdown protocols (CDC warns U.S. may reimplement strict coronavirus measures if cases go up ‘dramatically’).
