Both the euro and Swiss franc were net winners on the week, benefiting from the continued coronavirus-induced risk aversion environment, and likely on arguably net positive economic updates from Europe (including better-than-expected European manufacturing PMI’s, Swiss GDP) and commentary from ECB members that stimulative action isn’t warranted…just yet.
The Euro
Overlay of EUR Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
EUR Weekly Performance from MarketMilk
European Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
- ECB Can Do More if Needed, but We’re Not There Yet: Villeroy
- Big central banks discussing coronavirus-related volatility: ECB
- ECB should not have to act on every shock: Wunsch
- EU ready to loosen purse strings as coronavirus bites economy
- Eurozone PMI rises to one-year high, but supply-side constraints emerge
Tuesday:
- ECB’s Holzmann sees no need for rate cut to combat coronavirus
- Spanish unemployment falls in February by 42,993 people compared to the same month last year
- Italian employment decreased in January by -0.2% m/m
- Euro area annual inflation down to 1.2%
- Euro area unemployment at 7.4%; EU27 at 6.6%
- Industrial producer prices up by 0.4% in both euro area and EU27 in January m/m
- No need for imminent ECB action on coronavirus: ECB’s Kazimir
Wednesday:
- IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI – growth reaches six-month high in February
- German business activity growth slips to three-month low in February amid slump in foreign demand
- German Retail turnover in January 2020: +1.8% y/y in real terms
- Volume of retail trade up by 0.6% in euro area; Up by 0.5% in EU27
- Germany’s Scholz ready for ‘timely, targeted’ stimulus to counter coronavirus: sources
Thursday:
- EU’s Barnier says ‘serious’ differences in UK talks but deal possible
- EU grants governments fiscal leeway to fight coronavirus impact, eyes more
Friday:
- German industry orders surge in Jan by most in five-and-a-half years
- The balance of France’s foreign merchandise trade stands at -5.887B euros
- In January 2020 the seasonally adjusted index of Italian retail sales remained largely unchanged on the previous month (value 0.0%, volume +0.1%)
The Swiss Franc
Overlay of CHF Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
CHF Weekly Performance from MarketMilk
Swiss Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
- Swiss National Bank to double payout after posting $50 billion profit
- Swiss manufacturing PMI February 2020: So far only mild contagion symptoms
Tuesday:
- Switzerland’s GDP rose by 0.3% in the 4th quarter of 2019, following 0.4% in the previous quarter
- Swiss National Bank mulls coronavirus response amid recession fears: Maechler
Wednesday:
- Swiss Consumer prices increased by 0.1% in February
Thursday:
- Swiss franc bulls take control big time during the Thursday trading session, likely on negative global risk sentiment as Coronavirus fears spiked higher, especially after California declared state of emergency over coronavirus.
Friday:
- Swiss National Bank foreign currency reserves increase in February
- Another positive session for the Swiss franc on the Friday session, likely on U.S. dollar weakness as U.S. Treasury yields plumb new depths, and on more negative Coronavirus news of more than 100,000 infections worldwide and Coronavirus deaths rise to more than 3,300 worldwide.
