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Both the euro and the Swiss franc were big net winners this week, likely benefitting from counter currency flows and better-than-expected business sentiment data from Europe earlier in the week.

The Euro

Overlay of EUR Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of EUR Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
EUR Weekly Performance from MarketMilk
EUR Weekly Performance from MarketMilk

European Headlines and Economic data

Monday:

Spain November flash harmonised CPI -0.9% y/y vs -0.9% in October

Tuesday:

Eurozone manufacturing growth remains strong in November

Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 53.8 in
November (Flash: 53.6, October Final: 54.8)

Job losses continue but confidence improves
further

German manufacturing recovery continues in November, albeit with slight loss of momentum – “Input price inflation at 21-month high as supply chains
pressures increase “

Fresh deterioration in French business conditions amid renewed COVID-19 lockdown – French manufacturing PMI came in at 49.6 in November vs. 51.3 in October

Euro area annual inflation stable at -0.3%

ECB’s Schnabel Warns Against Hopes for Blockbuster Stimulus

Italy’s economy returned to growth in the 3rd quarter as gross domestic product (GDP) jumped 15.9% q/q

Wednesday:

ECB’s Kazaks backs longer bond-buying stimulus boost – “an expansion of the institution’s emergency bond-buying program by 500 billion euros ($603 billion) would be “reasonable” and he’s ready to support an extension until mid 2022.”

German Retail turnover in October 2020: 2.6% m/m in real terms – +8.0% on the same month a year earlier (in real terms)

German Wholesale turnover in September 2020 down by 0.3% m/m – +1.1% real on the same quarter a year earlier

Thursday:

New COVID-19 lockdown restrictions weigh on
German service sector activity in November – German services PMI fell to 46.0 in November from 49.5 in October

France sees sharpest decline in service sector activity since May, falling to 38.8 in November from 46.5 in October.

Euro area unemployment at 8.4%; EU at 7.6% – “Eurostat estimates that 16.236 million men and women in the EU, of whom 13.825 million in the euro area, were unemployed in October 2020. Compared with September 2020, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 91 000 in the EU and by 86 000 in the euro area.”

Industrial producer prices up by 0.4% in the euro area and
by 0.3% in the EU

Volume of retail trade up by 1.5% in both euro
area and EU in October – In September 2020, the retail trade volume fell by 1.7% in the euro area and by 1.3% in the EU.

Friday:

German new orders up 2.9% m/m in October. September was revised to +1.1% m/m. Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, new orders in October 2020 were 0.8% higher in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms.

Italian retail sales was up 0.6% m/m in October. Volume rose by 0.2% – “In the three months to October 2020, value of sales increased by 7.6%, while volume grew by 9.0% in the same period.”

Eurozone construction activity continues to fall in November – “A faster rise in German home building activity
was offset by a further steep decline in France, while the fall in Italy was only marginal.”

ECB May Opt for 12-Month Extension to Emergency Bond Program

The Swiss Franc

Overlay of CHF Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of CHF Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
CHF Weekly Performance from MarketMilk
CHF Weekly Performance from MarketMilk

Swiss Headlines and Economic data

Monday:

The KOF Economic Barometer declined in November to 103.5 points, 2.8 points lower than in October – The decline of the KOF Economic Barometer in November is primarily due to a bundle of indicators from the manufacturing sector and private consumption. 

Swiss retail trade turnover rises in October – “Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 2.6% in nominal terms in October 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 3.3% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).”

Tuesday:

Gross domestic product in the 3rd quarter of 2020 grew by 7.2%; Still 2% below pre-crisis level

– Private consumptions +11.9%

– Investment in equipment +8.8%

– Investment in Construction +5.1%

– Retail +6.0%

Swiss PMI November 2020: Second corona wave has so far slowed service providers in particular

Wednesday:

The Swiss consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2% m/m in November 2020