Both the euro and the Swiss franc were big net winners this week, likely benefitting from counter currency flows and better-than-expected business sentiment data from Europe earlier in the week.
European Headlines and Economic data
Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 53.8 in
November (Flash: 53.6, October Final: 54.8)
Job losses continue but confidence improves
German manufacturing recovery continues in November, albeit with slight loss of momentum – “Input price inflation at 21-month high as supply chains
pressures increase “
Fresh deterioration in French business conditions amid renewed COVID-19 lockdown – French manufacturing PMI came in at 49.6 in November vs. 51.3 in October
ECB’s Kazaks backs longer bond-buying stimulus boost – “an expansion of the institution’s emergency bond-buying program by 500 billion euros ($603 billion) would be “reasonable” and he’s ready to support an extension until mid 2022.”
German Retail turnover in October 2020: 2.6% m/m in real terms – +8.0% on the same month a year earlier (in real terms)
German Wholesale turnover in September 2020 down by 0.3% m/m – +1.1% real on the same quarter a year earlier
Euro area unemployment at 8.4%; EU at 7.6% – “Eurostat estimates that 16.236 million men and women in the EU, of whom 13.825 million in the euro area, were unemployed in October 2020. Compared with September 2020, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 91 000 in the EU and by 86 000 in the euro area.”
German new orders up 2.9% m/m in October. September was revised to +1.1% m/m. Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, new orders in October 2020 were 0.8% higher in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms.
Italian retail sales was up 0.6% m/m in October. Volume rose by 0.2% – “In the three months to October 2020, value of sales increased by 7.6%, while volume grew by 9.0% in the same period.”
Eurozone construction activity continues to fall in November – “A faster rise in German home building activity
was offset by a further steep decline in France, while the fall in Italy was only marginal.”
The Swiss Franc
Swiss Headlines and Economic data
The KOF Economic Barometer declined in November to 103.5 points, 2.8 points lower than in October – The decline of the KOF Economic Barometer in November is primarily due to a bundle of indicators from the manufacturing sector and private consumption.
Swiss retail trade turnover rises in October – “Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 2.6% in nominal terms in October 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 3.3% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).”
– Private consumptions +11.9%
– Investment in equipment +8.8%
– Investment in Construction +5.1%
– Retail +6.0%