Both the euro and Swiss franc fall on the week, likely on another round of weak economic updates from Europe, as well as the announcement of the likely new ECB President, who is likely to continue the expected dovish moves Draghi will make before he steps down.
The Euro
European Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
Tuesday:
- German monthly retail sales drop, confounding expectations
- Industrial producer prices down by 0.1% in euro area; Unchanged in EU28
- ECB Policy Makers See No Rush for July Interest-Rate Cut
- Lagarde to Succeed Draghi as ECB Chief as Economy Weakens – the euro broadly fell lower after this news through the Wednesday session, likely on the idea that Lagarde would be expected to continue the dovish actions that Draghi will likely take before he steps down from his role as ECB president.
Wednesday:
- German Service sector ends second quarter strongly, but outlook darkens
- IHS Markit Eurozone Services PMI; Solid growth of euro area signaled in June
- Italy avoids EU sanction threat over its debt, for now
- Brexit Withdrawal Agreement will stand as it is, says German ambassador
Thursday:
- Volume of retail trade down by 0.3% in euro area; Down by 0.4% in EU28
- Trump tweet sparks concerns that the US may raise tariffs on Europe
- ECB needs to provide more stimulus to live up to mandate: Rehn
- Euro zone May retail sales unexpectedly fall 0.3% month-on-month: Eurostat
Friday:
- EU Officials Are Considering Mark Carney for Top IMF Job
- German Factory Orders Plunge Across Industries
The Swiss Franc
Swiss Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
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- Swiss retail trade turnover falls by 1.6% in May 2019
- In June, the procure.ch Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 47.7 points, one point below the level of the previous month
- Swiss-EU relations risk downward spiral as bourse row flares
- The Swiss franc broadly fell on Monday, likely on global risk sentiment shifting more positive as news of U.S. and China restarting trade talks arises after the G20 meeting, and possibly on a reopening of nuclear talks between the U.S. and North Korea after a surprise meeting between U.S. President Trump and North Korean Leader Kim.
Tuesday:
- Swiss National Bank sticks to ‘boring’ expansionary stance – Zurbruegg
- The broad bounce higher in the Swiss franc against the majors during the U.S. session doesn’t seem to have a direct catalyst. It is likely a global risk-off sentiment move, possibly sparked by the spate of weak manufacturing PMI reads from around the globe (Global Manufacturing PMI at lowest level since October 2012).
Wednesday:
Thursday:
