Uniform moves were rarely to be found in euro pairs this week, indicating that a relatively quiet economic calendar & news cycle meant the euro bowed down to counter currency flows all week. The Swiss franc roughly saw the same amount of volatility with its nearly empty calendar not bringing any kind of action, but a short-term burst of unexplained weakness brings in the question of potential SNB intervention.
The Euro
Overlay of EUR Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
European Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
- German business sentiment lowest since November 2014: Ifo
Tuesday:
- French business sentiment declines in June to 102 vs.104 in May
Wednesday:
- German GfK consumer morale edges down heading into July
Thursday:
- CPI in Germany increased to 105.70 Index Points in June from 105.40 Index Points in May of 2019
Friday:
- The index of import prices in Germany fell by 0.2 percent year-on-year in May 2019, following a 1.4 percent growth in the previous month
- In June 2019, French consumer prices increased by 1.2% year on year
- Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.2% in June 2019
The Swiss Franc
Overlay of CHF Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Switzerland Headlines and Economic data
Tuesday:
- Swiss franc pairs move lower during the Asia and Europe trading sessions. With no apparent direct catalysts from Switzerland or Europe, and with geopolitical risks high (U.S.-Iran tensions) likely keeping safe havens bid, it’s possible the Swiss National Bank was making good on their recent currency intervention threats to keep the franc from appreciating further.
Friday:
- KOF Economic Barometer falls to 93.6 in June versus a downwardly revised 93.8 in May – this correlates with a slight move lower in franc pairs, but risk-on sentiment could have been a contributing factor as improving U.S.-China trade war rhetoric (Mnuchin: ‘We were about 90% of the way’ on China trade deal and there’s a ‘path to complete this’) grew throughout the week.
