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The latest European PMI updates saved the euro from having a terrible week after Draghi’s comments, while the Swiss franc benefits big time from counter currency weakness & geopolitical tensions.
The Euro
Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
- German economy to shrink slightly in second quarter – Bundesbank
- ECB’s Coeure: If we decide to cut rates, we’d have to consider tiering – FT
- ECB Officials Say Bank Ready to Act Amid ‘Alarming’ Market Signs
- Euro zone wages post record year-on-year rise in first quarter: Eurostat
Tuesday:
- German investor morale drops on weak data, headwinds from abroad – ZEW
- EU trade surplus with U.S. expands, deficit with China larger
- Super Mario’ shock: euro slides, yields hit new lows
- Euro zone inflation confirmed slowing to one-year low in May: Eurostat
Wednesday:
- Left in the dark, ECB policymakers divided on stimulus options
- Italy says will respect EU budget rules but fight to change them
Thursday:
- ECB’s Rehn says ready to act if no improvements in euro zone economy
- Consumer confidence dropped in both the euro area and the EU by 0.7 points to -7.2 and -6.9 respectively
Friday:
- EU Threatens Sanctions Amid Turkey-Cyprus Drilling Spat
- Eurozone Flash PMI hits seven-month high at 52.1 but growth and sentiment remain subdued – most of the euro pairs recovered from the week’s losses that was sparked on Tuesday by Mario Draghi’s openness to reversing monetary policy back to easing.
The Swiss Franc
Swiss Headlines and Economic data
Tuesday:
- Swiss franc pairs fell lower with the euro after ECB President Mario Draghi surprises markets with hints of easing monetary policy.
Wednesday:
- SNB Quarterly Bulletin: No no insights as it reiterates the SNB’s policy to maintain an accommodative policy to support price stability and economic expansion, as well as an active role in the foreign currency markets when necessary.
- Swiss franc pairs began their accent for the week on this session, likely due to a combination of a weakening U.S. dollar after the latest FOMC meeting (dovish rhetoric leads to speculation of rate cuts coming), the weaker euro, and geopolitical risks remaining elevated (U.S.-Iran tensions rising after oil tanker attacks last week and downing of U.S. drone this week).
Thursday: