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The euro was on shaky footing in the previous week as medium-tier leading indicators started showing some cracks. Can it stay afloat in this shortened trading week?

Medium-tier data dump (starting Mar. 27)

As in most weeks, the main catalysts for the euro might be the medium-tier data coming from its top economies. While these don’t normally spark strong directional moves from the shared currency, it’s still worth taking note of how the results turn out in order to get better odds when playing major catalysts.
First up, we’ve got the Spanish flash CPI numbers on Tuesday’s London session, with analysts expecting to see a slight pickup from the earlier 1.1% gain.
The next day, we’ve got German retail sales data, which can be a pretty huge deal since this measures consumer spending for the euro zone’s top economy. Germany will also release its preliminary CPI reading for March before European markets close for the rest of the week.

Last Week’s Price Review

The Euro

The euro is turning in another mixed performance this week (as of 1 pm GMT). That’s not yet set in stone, though, since the euro barely lost out to the Kiwi and the euro’s lead again the Swissy is only razor thin.

Overlay of EUR Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of EUR Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart

Despite the mixed performance, the euro wasn’t really a mere pushover that only took orders from its peers. After all, there were clear instances of uniform price action on the euro.

The first such instance happened on Monday when the euro climbed higher, apparently because of rumors that the ECB officials are supposedly shifting their monetary policy discussion towards the future path of interest rates, which goes against the ECB’s forward guidance that interest rates aren’t budging anytime soon.

The next instance of uniform price action was the broad-based euro weakness on Tuesday. As noted in Tuesday’s London session recap, market analysts were blaming the euro’s slide on the disappointing ZEW economic sentiment.

But as you can see in the overlay of EUR pairs, the euro began encountering sellers about an hour before that low-tier report was released, so it’s not really clear what the actual catalyst for the euro’s slide was.

After that, the euro’s price action became a mixed mess before we got the last instance of uniform euro price action when the euro weakened across the board during Thursday’s European session.

And as noted in Thursday’s London session recap, this was apparently due to a slew of Euro Zone PMI reports, which all failed to meet expectations.

The manufacturing PMI reading for the Euro Zone as a whole was especially disappointing since it dropped from 58.6 to 56.6 in February, which is a 14-month low.

After that, the euro’s price action became a chaotic mess again. 

The Swiss Franc

Overlay of CHF Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of CHF Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart

As of 1 pm GMT, the Swissy is on course to closing out as a net loser for the week. However, the trading day is far from over and the Swissy’s losses to the euro and the Kiwi are rather small, so the Swissy’s ranking could still change.

With that said, price action on the euro and the Swissy were very similar (as per the usual).

Interestingly enough, the Swissy actually outperformed the euro on Thursday and early Friday, very likely because of the intense risk-off vibes.

However, there was a rush of selling pressure on the Swissy during Friday’s morning London session, even though risk aversion continued to prevailed. And as noted in Friday’s morning London session recap, there was no clear reason for this. Although I conjectured that perhaps the usual suspect, namely the SNB, was sneakily weakening the Swissy again.

AUD/CHF (inverted, red) vs.  EUR/AUD (black): 1-Hour Forex Chart
AUD/CHF (inverted, red) vs.  EUR/AUD (black): 1-Hour Forex Chart
CHF/JPY (red) vs.  EUR/JPY (black): 1-Hour Forex Chart
CHF/JPY (red) vs.  EUR/JPY (black): 1-Hour Forex Chart
USD/CHF (inverted, red) vs.  EUR/USD (black): 1-Hour Forex Chart
USD/CHF (inverted, red) vs.  EUR/USD (black): 1-Hour Forex Chart