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A number of mid-tier releases are lined up from the top eurozone nations this week.

Can these push the shared currency in a single direction?

Mid-tier euro zone data

  • German IFO business climate index (July 27, 9:00 am GMT) to improve from 86.2 to 89.2
  • Spanish unemployment rate (July 28, 8:00 am GMT) to climb from 14.4% to 16.7%
  • German import prices (July 29, 7:00 am GMT) to post 0.5% uptick after earlier 0.3% gain
  • German preliminary CPI (July 30) to indicate 0.2% dip in price levels for July
  • Spanish flash CPI (July 30, 3:00 pm GMT) to print another 0.3% drop in prices
  • German preliminary GDP (July 30, 4:00 pm GMT) to show 9.0% contraction in Q2
  • French flash GDP (July 31, 1:30pm GMT) to print 15.2% contraction in Q2
  • German retail sales (July 31, 2:00 pm GMT) to show 3.0% y/y decline in spending
  • French consumer spending (July 31, 2:45 pm GMT) to show 6.9% increase in June
  • Euro zone flash CPI (July 31, 5:00 pm GMT) to print 0.3% headline figure, 0.8% core reading

Low-tier Swiss data

  • Credit Suisse economic expectations index (July 29, 4:00 pm GMT) to show improvement from earlier 48.7 figure
  • KOF economic barometer (July 30, 3:00 pm GMT) to climb from 59.4 to 72.5 in July
  • Swiss retail sales (July 31, 2:30 pm GMT) to advance from 6.6% gain in May

Overall market sentiment

  • Risk-off flows tend to benefit the lower-yielding euro and franc, especially if the yen and dollar are under downside pressure
  • Renewed tensions between the U.S. and China are in the spotlight after consulates have been closed in Houston and Chengdu
  • There is still a lot of market focus on second wave COVID-19 fears as another round of lockdown measures could prompt a flight to safety
  • Rallying gold prices are also in focus, but traders seem wary of buying up the positively-correlated franc due to SNB intervention threats

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic suggests that most euro pairs are still looking bearish in the overbought territory
EUR Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
EUR Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • Only EUR/CHF has yet to make it to the bearish region
  • As for franc pairs, the same oscillator is painting a mixed picture
CHF Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
CHF Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • In particular, NZD/CHF, USD/CHF and CAD/CHF are all overbought while CHF/JPY is oversold. The rest are in neutral territory.

Missed last week’s price action? Read EUR & CHF’s price recap for July 20 – 24!