It’s almost the end of the month, so you know what this means. It’s time for a fresh batch of PMI readings from the euro zone!
Industry PMIs (staring Sept. 23, 7:15 am GMT)
First up, we’ve got the French flash services PMI for September due, and analysts are expecting to see a dip from 53.4 to 53.1 to reflect a slower pace of expansion. Along with that, France will release its manufacturing PMI and likely show a decline from 51.1 to 50.9.
Next, Germany will release its flash manufacturing and services PMIs, possibly showing a gain from 43.5 to 44.6 for the former and a drop from 54.8 to 54.3 for the latter. Pretty mixed bag, eh?
The aggregate numbers for the region are due next, with the flash services PMI projected to climb from 47.6 to 47.0 and the flash manufacturing PMI likely to fall from 53.5 to 53.1.
German Ifo business climate (Sept. 24, 8:00 am GMT)
The euro zone’s top economy is set to print another leading indicator around the middle of the week, possibly dropping more hints on how performance might fare in the months ahead.
The reading for September is expected to tick higher from 94.3 to 94.5 to reflect a bit more optimism among surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, services, and retailers.
ECB head Draghi’s speech (Sept. 26, 1:30 pm GMT)
Head honcho Draghi is scheduled to deliver opening remarks at the European Systemic Risk Board annual conference. However, no audience questions are expected in this particular speech.
Still, market participants are likely to read between the lines of his remarks to figure out what the central bank’s next moves might be. Recall that the ECB just recently cut its deposit rate and launched a new bond-buying program, so Super Mario might have some downbeat commentary up his sleeve.
Then again, keep in mind that Draghi is due to step down from his post by November 1 to give way to the new ECB sheriff in town: former IMF head Christine Lagarde.
In the absence of major reports from the Swiss economy, the lower-yielding franc might simply take its cues from overall market sentiment as in the previous weeks.
Market events to keep tabs on include trade talks between the U.S. and China as a bit of risk aversion returned to the markets last week on news of Trump not being open to partial deals and the canceled goodwill visits of China to U.S. farms.
Apart from that, geopolitical risks stemming from the conflict in the Middle East are also dampening risk-taking, thereby giving the proxy safe-haven franc a bit of a lift.
As always, just be wary of jawboning from SNB officials or even indications of currency intervention by the central bank as they have a tendency to sneak up on the markets.