Both the euro and franc were able to bank on safe-haven demand in the previous week, even with downbeat data. Can the same hold true this time?
German ZEW economic sentiment (Aug. 13, 9:00 am GMT)
The euro zone’s top dawg is set to give a glimpse of its economic health through the results of the ZEW economic sentiment survey. For the month of August, the reading is slated to fall further from -24.5 to -27.8 to reflect growing pessimism.
If so, this would mark the figure’s fourth month in the red and fifth consecutive decline. In other words, it would indicate that institutional investors and analysts aren’t seeing the light at the end of the tunnel yet and instead foresee gloomier economic conditions.
A weaker than expected read would likely remind euro traders of the ECB’s dovish outlook, prompting stronger speculations of additional easing measures before the year ends.
German preliminary GDP (Aug. 14, 6:00 am GMT)
Germany is also scheduled to release its Q2 GDP reading, possibly reporting a 0.1% contraction for the period compared to the earlier 0.4% expansion.
Leading indicators and underlying data have been mostly on the disappointing end throughout the quarter, likely supporting a downbeat read. Still, an upside surprise could lend some support for the shared currency.
Overall market sentiment
As in the previous week, market sentiment might still be the main driver of price action, particularly for the Swiss currency which has no top-tier economic catalysts on deck.
Trade tensions have been the center of market attention these days, so more signs of conflict between the U.S. and China would likely stoke risk aversion and demand for lower-yielding currencies. Just be mindful of potential jawboning from SNB officials in case the franc rallies too strongly, though.
Missed last week’s price action? Read the EUR & CHF price review for August 5 – 9!